Publication: Financial decisions and financial constraints : evidence from emerging markets
Abstract
Finansal kısıtlar kavramı, son otuz yılda kurumsal finansman alanında en çok tartışılan konulardan biri olmuştur ve tam olarak tanımlanmayan bir kavramdır. Bu çalışmada finansal kısıtlar analizi için sırasıyla yatırım-nakit akışı duyarlılığı, nakit-nakit akışı duyarlılığı ve stok yatırımı-nakit akışı duyarlılığı analiz edilmiştir. Son yıllarda akademisyenler ve araştırmacılar arasında en çok çalışılan konulardan birisi de belirsizlik konusudur. Belirsizlik endeksleri için Küresel Ekonomi Politikası Belirsizlik Endeksi (GEPU) Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi (WUI) ve Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi (GPR) kullanılmıştır. Ek olarak, belirsizliğin finansal kısıtlamalar üzerindeki etkisini bulmak için belirsizliğin bu üç finansal kısıt kriteri ile etkileşimi incelenmiştir. Bu çalışma için, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Endeksinde yer alan sekiz gelişmekte olan ülkedeki 486 üretim firması, Türkiye, Polonya, Yunanistan, Brezilya, Güney Afrika, Şili, Meksika ve Arjantin, 2005-2018 yılları arasında iki aşamalı Genelleştirilmiş Moment Yöntemleri (GMM) ile analiz edilmiştir. Firma büyüklüğü ve yaşı, Kaplan ve Zingales (KZ) Endeksi, Size-Age (SA1) Endeksi ve Sales-Age (SA2) Endeksi firmaların finansal olarak kısıtlı olup olmadığını sınıflandırmak için kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre, yatırım- nakit akışı duyarlılığı ve envanter yatırımı- nakit akışı duyarlılığı finansal açıdan kısıtlı firmalar için pozitif ve anlamlı iken, finansal açıdan kısıtlı olmayan firmalar için anlamsızdır. Bununla birlikte, nakit- nakit akışı hassasiyeti hem kısıtlı hem de kısıtlı olmayan firmalar için pozitif ve anlamlıdır. Belirsizlik ortamında, tüm firmalar yatırımlarını ve stoklarını azaltırken daha fazla nakit tutmayı tercih etmiştir. Finansal açıdan kısıtlı firmalar için belirsizlik ve finansal kısıtlar etkileşimi olumlu ve anlamlıdır. Bu dönemlerde dış finansmana ulaşmanın zorlaşması nedeniyle iç kaynaklar daha da önemli hale gelmiştir. Bu tez, farklı derecelerde finansal kısıtlamalara sahip firmalar arasında yatırım-nakit akışı, nakit-nakit akışı ve envanter yatırımı – nakit akışını birlikte araştıran ve bu finansal kısıtlama kriterlerinin belirsizlikle etkileşimini araştıran ilk ampirik çalışma olabilir.
The concept of financial constraints has been one of the most debated topics in the field of corporate finance in the last three decades; it is a subject that has not been defined precisely. For the financial constraints criteria, investment-cash flow sensitivity, cash – cash flow sensitivity and inventory investment – cash flow sensitivity were analyzed respectively. Uncertainty was one of the most studied topics among academicians and practitioners in recent years. Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) Index, World Uncertainty Index (WUI), and Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) were used for the uncertainty indices.In addition, the interaction of uncertainty with these three types of financial constraints was examined to find the impact of uncertainty on financial constraints. For this study, 486 manufacturing firms in eight emerging markets included in Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Index, namely, Turkey, Poland, Greece, Brazil, South Africa, Chile, Mexico and Argentina, were analyzed between 2005-2018 by using the two-step Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) method. Firm size and age, and Kaplan and Zingales (KZ) Index, Size-Age (SA1) Index and Sales-Age (SA2) Index were used to classify whether firms are financially constrained or not.According to the results, the investment - cash flow sensitivity and inventory investment – cash flow sensitivity was significant for financially constrained and insignificant for unconstrained firms. However, cash – cash flow sensitivity was significant for both constrained and unconstrained firms. In an uncertain environment, all firms preferred to hold more cash while reducing their investments and inventory. The interaction of uncertainty and financial constraint was positive and significant for financially constrained firms. Internal funds became even more vital in these periods as it became more difficult to reach external financing. This dissertation might be the first empirical study that jointly investigates the ICFS, CCFS and INVCFS across firms with different degrees of financial constraints and investigates the interaction of these financial constraint criteria with uncertainty.
The concept of financial constraints has been one of the most debated topics in the field of corporate finance in the last three decades; it is a subject that has not been defined precisely. For the financial constraints criteria, investment-cash flow sensitivity, cash – cash flow sensitivity and inventory investment – cash flow sensitivity were analyzed respectively. Uncertainty was one of the most studied topics among academicians and practitioners in recent years. Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) Index, World Uncertainty Index (WUI), and Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) were used for the uncertainty indices.In addition, the interaction of uncertainty with these three types of financial constraints was examined to find the impact of uncertainty on financial constraints. For this study, 486 manufacturing firms in eight emerging markets included in Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Index, namely, Turkey, Poland, Greece, Brazil, South Africa, Chile, Mexico and Argentina, were analyzed between 2005-2018 by using the two-step Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) method. Firm size and age, and Kaplan and Zingales (KZ) Index, Size-Age (SA1) Index and Sales-Age (SA2) Index were used to classify whether firms are financially constrained or not.According to the results, the investment - cash flow sensitivity and inventory investment – cash flow sensitivity was significant for financially constrained and insignificant for unconstrained firms. However, cash – cash flow sensitivity was significant for both constrained and unconstrained firms. In an uncertain environment, all firms preferred to hold more cash while reducing their investments and inventory. The interaction of uncertainty and financial constraint was positive and significant for financially constrained firms. Internal funds became even more vital in these periods as it became more difficult to reach external financing. This dissertation might be the first empirical study that jointly investigates the ICFS, CCFS and INVCFS across firms with different degrees of financial constraints and investigates the interaction of these financial constraint criteria with uncertainty.