Publication: Türkiye- Avrupa Birliği iktisadi entegrasyonu: (Gümrük birliği açısından bir değerlendirme)
Abstract
Türkiye-AB GB sürecinde, ticaret genişleme,ticaret yaratma, ticaret saptırma etkileri oluşmuştur. Türkiye'nin gerek ithalatında ve gerekse ihracatta artış olmuşsa da ithalatın artış hızı ihracattan çok daha yüksek olmuş, bu durum dış ticaret hadlerini olumsuz yönde etkilemiştir. Başka bir açıdan, ihracatın ithalatı karşılama oranı giderek düşmüştür Dış ticaret hadlerindeki bu düşüş Türkiye açısından refah kaybıdır. Türkiye'nin standart ve ara mallardaki rekabet edebilirliği, AB ile ticaretinde zaman içerisinde yükselmiş olmasına rağmen ileri teknoloji ürünlerinde rekabet edebilirliği hiç yoktur. Türkiye katma değeri düşük ürünler üretmekte, ihraç etmekte ve katma değeri yüksek ürünler ithal etmektedir. Dolayısıyla dış ticaret hadleri olumsuz gelişme göstermektedir. Türkiye AB Gümrük Birliği sürecinde gümrük vergisi gelirlerinde küçükte olsa düşüş yaşanmıştır. Gümrük vergilerinin indirilmesi sonucu ithalat miktarında artışı yaşanmıştır. Artan ithalattan elde edilen KDV; gümrük vergilerindeki kamunun gelir kaybını telafi etmiş ve dış ticaretten elde edilen toplam kamu gelirinin arttırmasında da belirleyici olmuştur. GB sürecinde tüm sektörlerde endüstri içi ticaret yavaş da olsa artış göstermiştir. Buna rağmen demir çelik endüstrisi dışında AB ile dış ticaretimizin genel yapısı endüstriler arası ticaret mahiyetindedir. Türkiye-AB Gümrük Birliği, yabancı sermayenin Türkiye'ye çekilmesi hususunda beklenen etkiyi doğurmamıştır. Türkiye'nin yabancı sermaye çekememesinin ardındaki en önemli nedenler istikrarsızlık, hükümet mücadeleleri, yargı sistemindeki yetersizlikler, vergi sistemindeki çarpıklıklar, yolsuzluk, altyapı yetersizliği ve kayıt dışı ekonomidir. Türkiye'nin GB sürecinde yapması gereken önce ekonomik istikrarın sağlanmasıdır. Enflasyon ve işsizlik makul düzeyde olursa, ihracat imkanları geliştirilerek dış ticaret dengesi sağlanabilirse, makul ve istikrarlı bir büyüme hızı tutturulabilirse Türkiye'nin AB üyeliği hem kolaylaşacak hem de üye olmamasının maliyeti azalacaktır.
During Turkey -EU Custom Union period, some effects occurred as trade expansion, trade creation, trade diversion. Either importation or exportation of Turkey have been increased, the velocity of import is much more than export and this effected terms of trade negatively. In another word, the export income could not cover the expenses of import. This fall in terms of trade is to say loosing of welfare in Turkey. While the competition of Turkey in standardised and semi-manufactred goods in trade to EU have been increased but in technology production it is almost zero. Turkey has been producing; exporting less value added goods as importing highly technological products so terms of trade have been effected negatively. In period of Turkey-EU Custom Union, in revenue comes from custom taxes decreased in a less amount. By the lowering of custom taxes, importation rised dramatically. The surplus come from importation VAT compensated the loss of income through custom taxes and it was determinant accumulative income emerged from foreign trade for the state. During Custom Union period, intra-industry trade speed up despite it is slow in all sectors. However iron-steel industry was contrary, the main characteristic of trade between EU and Turkey based on inter industry trade. Custom Union between EU and Turkey could not create the necessary affect to bring the foreign investment to Turkey. The main reasons for this were economical unstability, the authority wars in the governments, the insufficiencies in law regulations and infrastructure of organisations, the distortions in the system of collecting taxes, corruptions and unregistered economic affairs. What Turkey must do in this custom union period is support the economical stability. If inflation and unemployment can be kept in a reasonable level and foreign trade balance should be kept by exportation attempts ,reasonable and stable growth rate can be created, the membership of Turkey to EU will be facilitated and the cost of this membership will be less.
During Turkey -EU Custom Union period, some effects occurred as trade expansion, trade creation, trade diversion. Either importation or exportation of Turkey have been increased, the velocity of import is much more than export and this effected terms of trade negatively. In another word, the export income could not cover the expenses of import. This fall in terms of trade is to say loosing of welfare in Turkey. While the competition of Turkey in standardised and semi-manufactred goods in trade to EU have been increased but in technology production it is almost zero. Turkey has been producing; exporting less value added goods as importing highly technological products so terms of trade have been effected negatively. In period of Turkey-EU Custom Union, in revenue comes from custom taxes decreased in a less amount. By the lowering of custom taxes, importation rised dramatically. The surplus come from importation VAT compensated the loss of income through custom taxes and it was determinant accumulative income emerged from foreign trade for the state. During Custom Union period, intra-industry trade speed up despite it is slow in all sectors. However iron-steel industry was contrary, the main characteristic of trade between EU and Turkey based on inter industry trade. Custom Union between EU and Turkey could not create the necessary affect to bring the foreign investment to Turkey. The main reasons for this were economical unstability, the authority wars in the governments, the insufficiencies in law regulations and infrastructure of organisations, the distortions in the system of collecting taxes, corruptions and unregistered economic affairs. What Turkey must do in this custom union period is support the economical stability. If inflation and unemployment can be kept in a reasonable level and foreign trade balance should be kept by exportation attempts ,reasonable and stable growth rate can be created, the membership of Turkey to EU will be facilitated and the cost of this membership will be less.