Publication: İşletmelerin hisse senedi getirilerinin Ekonomik Katma Değer (EVA) ve Piyasa Katma Değer (MVA) modelleri ile analiz edilmesi
Abstract
İşletmelerin hisse senedi getirilerinin Ekonomik Katma Değer (EVA) ve Piyasa Katma Değer (MVA) modelleri ile analiz edilmesi Sermaye piyasalarındaki gelişmeler, halka arzlar, birleşme ve satın alma işlemlerinin artmasıyla birlikte, işletmelerin gerçek değerini doğru ve objektif şekilde ölçme ihtiyacı doğmuştur. Özellikle satın alma ya da satış durumlarında, taraflar arasında adil bir fiyat belirlenebilmesi için şirketin gerçeğe uygun değeri kritik hale gelmiştir. Bu nedenle işletme değerlemesi hem muhasebe hem de finans açısından önemli bir konu haline gelmiştir. Satın alma ve satış işlemlerinde adil fiyatın belirlenmesi için şirketlerin gerçeğe uygun değerinin doğru hesaplanması gerekmektedir. Klasik değerleme yöntemlerinin yetersiz kalmasıyla birlikte, gelir temelli ve piyasa odaklı modern modeller daha fazla kullanılmaya başlanmış; özellikle halka arzların artması bu yöntemlerin önemini artırmıştır. Çalışmada, değer bazlı performans göstergeleri olan EVA ve MVA’nın hisse senedi getirilerini açıklamadaki rolü incelenmektedir. Araştırmanın amacı, bu iki modelin hisse senedi getirilerini tahmin etmede ne ölçüde kullanılabilir olduğunu değerlendirmektir. Çalışmada, tekstil sektöründeki 10 şirketin (ATEKS, MNDRS, KORDSA, YUNSA, BOSSA, YATAŞ, KRTEK, DAGİ, DESA, ARSAN) yıllık hisse senedi getirileri ile MVA ve EVA arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektedir. Bu analiz, 2019-2023 yılları arasındaki veriler kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Basit regresyon analizi ve korelasyon testleri, her iki değişkenin hisse getirisi üzerindeki etkisini ölçmeyi hedeflemiştir. Yapılan analizler sonucunda, MVA'nın Return üzerindeki etkisi yalnızca 2023 yılında anlamlı bulunmuşken, EVA'nın etkisi genellikle zayıf ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmamıştır. Kurulan regresyon modelleri, R², t-istatistikleri, p-değerleri ve F-testi gibi ölçütlerle değerlendirilmiş; elde edilen sonuçlar değer bazlı performans göstergelerinin hisse senedi getirileri üzerindeki etkisini ortaya koymaktadır.
Analyzing stock returns of companies with economic value added (EVA) and market value added (MVA) models Developments in capital markets, as well as the increase in public offerings, mergers, and acquisition activities, have created the need to measure the real value of businesses accurately and objectively. Especially in purchase or sale situations, determining a fair price between the parties makes the fair value of the company critical. For this reason, business valuation has become an important issue in both accounting and finance. For determining a fair price in purchase and sale transactions, the accurate calculation of the fair value of companies is required. As classical valuation methods have become insufficient, income-based and market-oriented modern models have begun to be used more frequently; and the increase in public offerings has further increased the importance of these methods. In the study, the role of value-based performance indicators EVA and MVA in explaining stock returns is examined. The aim of the research is to evaluate to what extent these two models can be used to predict stock returns. The study analyzes the relationship between annual stock returns and MVA and EVA for 10 companies in the textile sector (ATEKS, MNDRS, KORDSA, YUNSA, BOSSA, YATAŞ, KRTEK, DAGİ, DESA, ARSAN). This analysis was carried out using data from the years 2019–2023. Simple regression analysis and correlation tests were used to measure the effect of both variables on stock returns. As a result of the analyses, the effect of MVA on Return was found significant only in 2023, while the effect of EVA was generally weak and statistically insignificant. The regression models were evaluated with criteria such as R², t-statistics, p-values, and the F-test; and the obtained results reveal the effect of value-based performance indicators on stock returns.
Analyzing stock returns of companies with economic value added (EVA) and market value added (MVA) models Developments in capital markets, as well as the increase in public offerings, mergers, and acquisition activities, have created the need to measure the real value of businesses accurately and objectively. Especially in purchase or sale situations, determining a fair price between the parties makes the fair value of the company critical. For this reason, business valuation has become an important issue in both accounting and finance. For determining a fair price in purchase and sale transactions, the accurate calculation of the fair value of companies is required. As classical valuation methods have become insufficient, income-based and market-oriented modern models have begun to be used more frequently; and the increase in public offerings has further increased the importance of these methods. In the study, the role of value-based performance indicators EVA and MVA in explaining stock returns is examined. The aim of the research is to evaluate to what extent these two models can be used to predict stock returns. The study analyzes the relationship between annual stock returns and MVA and EVA for 10 companies in the textile sector (ATEKS, MNDRS, KORDSA, YUNSA, BOSSA, YATAŞ, KRTEK, DAGİ, DESA, ARSAN). This analysis was carried out using data from the years 2019–2023. Simple regression analysis and correlation tests were used to measure the effect of both variables on stock returns. As a result of the analyses, the effect of MVA on Return was found significant only in 2023, while the effect of EVA was generally weak and statistically insignificant. The regression models were evaluated with criteria such as R², t-statistics, p-values, and the F-test; and the obtained results reveal the effect of value-based performance indicators on stock returns.