Publication: 2001 krizi sonrası Türkiye’nin dış borç yapısı ve makroekonomik etkileri
Abstract
Borçlar, 2001 Krizi, Çoklu Regresyon Analizi, Cari İşlemler Dengesi ÖZET 2001 KRİZİ SONRASI TÜRKİYE’NİN DIŞ BORÇ YAPISI VE MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ Dış borçlanma, finansal liberalizasyon süreci ile birlikte özellikle Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler açısından önemli bir sorun haline gelmiştir. Bu süreçte uluslararası sermayenin önündeki engeller kalkmış, dış borçlanma GOÜ’lerin sıklıkla başvurduğu bir finansman yöntemi olmaya başlamıştır. Bu bağlamda Türkiye Ekonomisi de 2000 ve 2001 yıllarında önemli iki krizle sarsılmış, söz konusu süreç ekonomide yeni bir yapılanmayı zorunlu kılmıştır. Bu doğrultuda kamu borçlarının yeniden yapılandırılması ve kamu kesimi finansman açıklarının azaltılmasına rağmen, cari işlemler açıkları ve tasarruf- yatırım açıkları dış borç stokunda artışlara sebebiyet vermiştir. Bu çalışmada, 2001 yılı sonrası dış borçlanmada ortaya çıkan yeni yapının incelenmesi ve bu yapının makroekonomik verilerle ilişkisini ortaya koymak amaçlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda, 1998Q1- 2011Q4 dönemi için toplam dış borç stoku ve kısa vadeli dış borç stoku iki ayrı bağımlı değişken olarak ele alınmış ve makroekonomik verilerle çoklu regresyon analizine tabi tutulmuştur. Yapılan analize göre; GSYH artış oranı, iç borç stoku, toplam kamu harcamaları, toplam tasarruflar ve ticari açıklık oranı toplam dış borç stoku üzerinde etkili iken, kısa vadeli dış borç stoku ile GSYH artış oranı, toplam kamu harcamaları ve toplam tasarruflar arasında korelasyon bulunmaktadır. External Debt, 2001 Crisis, Multiple Regression Analysis, Current Account Balance
EXTERNAL DEBT STRUCTURE OF TURKEY AFTER 2001 CRISIS AND IT’S MACROECONOMİC EFFECTS After the financial liberalization process, external borrowing has become a major problem for developing countries and increasing markets. In this process, international capital movements were liberalized and than external debt had become a financing method which is often applied from Developing Countries. In this context, also Turkish Economy had lived similar problems as this countries and experienced major crises at 2000’s. That crises make it obligotary to a restructuring of economy. Despite the restructuring of public external debt and some changes have occured about external debt structure during this process, increasing current account deficit and saving- investment differences, causes of external debt increases. In this study, that’s intended analyse of the new structure of external debt, which becomes after 2001 crisis, and put forth of this new structures relationship with macroeconomic data’s. In this context, for the term of 1998Q1- 2011Q4, total external debt and short term external debt were testing with te macroeconomic variables as two dependent variables. According to test results; GDP changes, internal debt stock, total public expenditures, total savings and trade openness have correlation with total external debt stock. On the other hand; GDP changes, total public expenditures and total savings correlated with short-term external debt stock.
EXTERNAL DEBT STRUCTURE OF TURKEY AFTER 2001 CRISIS AND IT’S MACROECONOMİC EFFECTS After the financial liberalization process, external borrowing has become a major problem for developing countries and increasing markets. In this process, international capital movements were liberalized and than external debt had become a financing method which is often applied from Developing Countries. In this context, also Turkish Economy had lived similar problems as this countries and experienced major crises at 2000’s. That crises make it obligotary to a restructuring of economy. Despite the restructuring of public external debt and some changes have occured about external debt structure during this process, increasing current account deficit and saving- investment differences, causes of external debt increases. In this study, that’s intended analyse of the new structure of external debt, which becomes after 2001 crisis, and put forth of this new structures relationship with macroeconomic data’s. In this context, for the term of 1998Q1- 2011Q4, total external debt and short term external debt were testing with te macroeconomic variables as two dependent variables. According to test results; GDP changes, internal debt stock, total public expenditures, total savings and trade openness have correlation with total external debt stock. On the other hand; GDP changes, total public expenditures and total savings correlated with short-term external debt stock.