Publication: Development a forecasting model for external trade of Turkey in glass and glassware
Abstract
Camın bulunuşu insanlık için en önemli adımlardan biridir. Camın bulunuşu yaklaşık MÖ. 5000’e tarihlendiği halde, ilk bilinen camcılık ürünleri MÖ 2500’e gider. Cam ve camcılık üretiminin bir sanayiye dönüşmesi 17. yüzyılda olmuştur. Zaman içerisinde yeni çeşitler bulunmuş ve cam ve camcılık ürünlerinin kullanım alanı genişlemiştir. Cam ve cam ürünleri sadece günlük kullanımda değil; uzay araştırmalarında, optikte, tıpta, bilimsel araştırmalarda, bilgisayar ve otomotiv sektörlerinde kullanılmaktadır. Cam ve cam ürünleri üretimi sadece Dünya için değil, ülkemiz için de önem taşımaktadır. cam ve cam ürünlerinin kullanım alanları giderek genişlemekte ve yeni cam ürünleri ortaya çıkmaktadır. Ancak, cam ve cam ürünleri sanayisine giriş ve işletme maliyetleri çok yüksektir. Ayrıca bu sanayide sürekli üretim yapmak gerekmektedir. Çünkü üretimi durdurma maliyeti çok yüksektir. Bu yüzden cam ve cam ürünleri sanayisinde faaliyet gösteren şirket sayısı, diğer sanayilerdekilere göre çok azdır ve bu sanayide şirket tekelleri oluşmuştur. İkinci bölümde camcılığın Dünya’da ve Türklerde gelişim aşamaları kısaca özetlenmiştir. Bu bilgilere ek olarak cam ve camcılık ürünlerinin kullanım alanları belirtilmiştir. Ayrıca, 1936 yılında yarı devlet, yarı özel bir şirket olarak kurulan ve 1990’larda uluslarası bir markaya dönüşen Şişecam’ın tarihi kısaca özetlenecek ve kuruluşundan bugüne kadar vermiş olduğu stratejik kararların doğruluğu da tartışılacaktır. Ayrıca bu bölümde optik alanında uzmanlaşmış Carl Zeiss, Çek kökenli bir Avusturya firması olan ve camdan mücevher üretimide uzmanlaşan Swarovski ve 7 asrı aşkın süredir yapılan Murano camcılığı tanıtılmıştır Ülkemizde tahmin yöntemleriyle ilgili birçok tez yazılmıştır. Ancak, ülkemizin dış ticaretinde önemli bir paya sahip olan cam ve cam ürünleri dış ticaretinin modellenmesiyle ilgili bir tezin yazılmamış olması şaşırtıcıdır. TÜİK’den (eskiden DİE) 1924-2005 yılları arasındaki Türkiye cam ve cam ürünleri dış ticaret değerleriyle üretici ve tüketici enflasyon yüzdeleri toplanmıştır. Cam ve cam ürünleri dış ticareti değerleri, enflasyon etkisinden arındırılmış ve bu değerler üzerinden 2006-2015 yılları arası değerler tahmin edilmiştir. Ayrıca enflasyon değerleri tahmin edilmiş ve gerçek dış ticaret tahmin değerleri bulunmuştur. Bu tezde regresyon, üstel düzeltme, eğilim analizi, hareketli ortalama ve ARIMA modelleri denenmiştir.
Invention of glass was one of the most important steps for humanity. The first known glassware products were dated back BC. 2500 despite of invention of glass was dated back approximately BC. 5000. Glass and glassware production was turned into an industry in 17th century. New types of glass and glassware were found in course of time and usage area of them was enhanced. Glass and glassware products not only used for daily usage but also used for space researches, optics, medicine, scientific researches and sectors of computer and automotive. Glass and glassware product not only carried for World but also for Turkey. Usage areas of glass and glassware products are gradually enhanced and new glass products are appeared. However, costs of introduction to glass and glassware industry and administrating are very high. Also, continuous production making is needed because its stopping production cost is very high. Thus, company number in glass and glassware is less than one in other industries and company monopolies are formed in this industry. Development steps of glassware are shortly summarized in the World and at the Turks in Chapter 2. Usage areas of glass and glassware products are explained in addition information about development steps of glassware. History of Şişecam, who was established as partly state and partly private-owned in 1936 and she turned an international trademark in 1990s is shortly summarized and Truth of Şişecam’s strategic decisions from her establishment to present are discussed. Carl Zeiss who experienced in optics, Swarovski who is an Austrian firm with Czech origin and she experienced imitation jewelleries and Murano glassware that is produced for beyond 7 centuries are introduced. A lot of theses were written about forecasting methods in Turkey. However, a thesis is not written about modelling of glass and glassware external trade and this case is surprising in Turkey. Data of Turkey glass and glassware external trade and percentages of producer and consumer inflation are between years of 1924 and 2005 collected from TÜİK (formerly DİE). Values of glass and glassware external trade are purified from inflation effect and values between years 2006 and 2015 are forecasted from fixed values. Also, inflation values are forecasted and real external trade forecasting values are found. The models of regression, exponential smoothing, trend analysis, moving average and ARIMA are tried.
Invention of glass was one of the most important steps for humanity. The first known glassware products were dated back BC. 2500 despite of invention of glass was dated back approximately BC. 5000. Glass and glassware production was turned into an industry in 17th century. New types of glass and glassware were found in course of time and usage area of them was enhanced. Glass and glassware products not only used for daily usage but also used for space researches, optics, medicine, scientific researches and sectors of computer and automotive. Glass and glassware product not only carried for World but also for Turkey. Usage areas of glass and glassware products are gradually enhanced and new glass products are appeared. However, costs of introduction to glass and glassware industry and administrating are very high. Also, continuous production making is needed because its stopping production cost is very high. Thus, company number in glass and glassware is less than one in other industries and company monopolies are formed in this industry. Development steps of glassware are shortly summarized in the World and at the Turks in Chapter 2. Usage areas of glass and glassware products are explained in addition information about development steps of glassware. History of Şişecam, who was established as partly state and partly private-owned in 1936 and she turned an international trademark in 1990s is shortly summarized and Truth of Şişecam’s strategic decisions from her establishment to present are discussed. Carl Zeiss who experienced in optics, Swarovski who is an Austrian firm with Czech origin and she experienced imitation jewelleries and Murano glassware that is produced for beyond 7 centuries are introduced. A lot of theses were written about forecasting methods in Turkey. However, a thesis is not written about modelling of glass and glassware external trade and this case is surprising in Turkey. Data of Turkey glass and glassware external trade and percentages of producer and consumer inflation are between years of 1924 and 2005 collected from TÜİK (formerly DİE). Values of glass and glassware external trade are purified from inflation effect and values between years 2006 and 2015 are forecasted from fixed values. Also, inflation values are forecasted and real external trade forecasting values are found. The models of regression, exponential smoothing, trend analysis, moving average and ARIMA are tried.