Publication: Türkiye'nin serbest ticaret anlaşmaları çerçevesinde İngiltere-Türkiye serbest ticaret anlaşmasının değerlendirilmesi
Abstract
Avrupa Birliği küresel platformda hem büyüklüğü hem de kapsamı açısından oldukça önemli bir yere sahip, birçok taraflı oluşum olarak yerini korumaktadır. Bu denli geniş bir topluluktan uzun ve sancılı bir süreç sonucunda ayrılma kararı alan İngiltere’nin bu tutumu tüm dünya üzerindeki ekonomik dengeler açısından oldukça önemli bir hamle olmuştur. BREXIT olarak adlandırılan bu süreç Türkiye açısından da son derece önem arz etmektedir. BREXIT sürecinin tamamlanmasının ardından AB’ye Gümrük Birliği ile bağlı olan Türkiye ve artık AB üyesi olmayan İngiltere arasında bir serbest ticaret anlaşması hayata geçirilmesi gündeme gelmiştir. 2021 yılının Nisan ayında yürürlüğe giren Türkiye-İngiltere serbest ticaret anlaşması, BREXIT öncesi Türkiye-İngiltere ticari akımlarını olumsuz yönde etkilemeyerek, aksine ikili ticari ilişkilerini daha da kolaylaştırarak taraflar arasındaki ticari hareketliliği arttırmaya yönelik düzenlenmiştir. Bu çalışmada 22 farklı ülke ile serbest ticaret anlaşmasına sahip olan Türkiye’nin söz konusu ülkelerle olan ticari ilişkileri serbest ticaret anlaşmalarının öncesi ve sonrası dönemlerine göre incelenmiş ve İngiltere ile yapılan serbest ticaret anlaşmasının toplam ticaret ve makro değişkenler üzerindeki etkileri çekim modeli ve ARDL yöntemi ile analiz ve tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır.
The European Union maintains its place in the global platform as a multilateral entity that has a very important place in terms of both its size and scope. This attitude of England, which decided to leave such a large community as a result of a long and painful process, has been a very important move in terms of economic balances all over the world. This process, called BREXIT, is also extremely important for Turkey. Following the completion of the BREXIT process, a free trade agreement between Turkey, which is bound to the EU with the Customs Union, and the UK, which is no longer a member of the EU, has come to the fore. The Turkey-England free trade agreement, which entered into force in N.S. 2021, was designed to increase trade mobility between the parties by not adversely affecting Turkey-England trade flows before BREXIT, but by facilitating bilateral trade relations even more. In this study, the commercial relations of Turkey, which has free trade agreements with 22 different countries, were examined according to the periods before and after the free trade agreements, and the effects of the free trade agreement with England on total trade and macro variables were analyzed and predicted by gravity model and ARDL method, has been attempted.
The European Union maintains its place in the global platform as a multilateral entity that has a very important place in terms of both its size and scope. This attitude of England, which decided to leave such a large community as a result of a long and painful process, has been a very important move in terms of economic balances all over the world. This process, called BREXIT, is also extremely important for Turkey. Following the completion of the BREXIT process, a free trade agreement between Turkey, which is bound to the EU with the Customs Union, and the UK, which is no longer a member of the EU, has come to the fore. The Turkey-England free trade agreement, which entered into force in N.S. 2021, was designed to increase trade mobility between the parties by not adversely affecting Turkey-England trade flows before BREXIT, but by facilitating bilateral trade relations even more. In this study, the commercial relations of Turkey, which has free trade agreements with 22 different countries, were examined according to the periods before and after the free trade agreements, and the effects of the free trade agreement with England on total trade and macro variables were analyzed and predicted by gravity model and ARDL method, has been attempted.