Publication: Türkiye'de faiz politikalarının konut talebine olan etkileri : Bir uygulama
Abstract
Tüm dünyada olduğu gibi Türkiye’de de makro ölçekte gayrimenkul, mikro ölçekte konut, hanehalkları açısından ilgi odağıdır. Barınmaya yönelik vazgeçilmez ihtiyaç olan konut, yarattığı ekonomik değer neticesinde karar alıcıların makroekonomik değişkenler ile ilişkisine gün geçtikçe daha fazla önem vermelerini gerektirmektedir. Konut sektörünün yarattığı ekonomik değer içerisinde konut talebi önemli ve etkili bir değişkendir. Dolayısıyla konut talebini etkileyen faktörlerin akademik çevrelerde ilgi görmesi kaçınılmaz olmuştur. Tezin amacı bu doğrultuda Türkiye’de uygulanan faiz politikalarının konut talebine olan etkisinin belirlenmesidir. Tezde para politikası kavramsal ve kuramsal perspektifte ele alınmakta, faiz politikalarının parasal aktarım kanalı ile konut piyasasına etkileri ortaya konulmaktadır. Ayrıca konut talebinde belirleyici olduğu düşünülen konut finansman yöntemleri teorik olarak incelenmiş ve ülke uygulamaları değerlendirilmiştir. Bunun yanı sıra dünya ekonomisine yön veren ve konut sektörü açısından önemli görülen ülkelerin merkez bankalarınca uygulanan faiz politikaları ve konut talebi ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Literatürde genel kanı konut talebinin faiz politikaları ile ters yönlü bir ilişki içerisinde olduğu yönündedir. Ülkemizde yapılan çalışmalar literatür ile uyumludur. Tezin uygulaması satış rakamları üzerinden 2013.01-2022.03 dönemi aylık veriler için Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) tarafından uygulanan faiz politikalarının konut talebine olan etkisinin ekonometrik analizine dayanmaktadır. Yapılan analizler uzun dönemli ilişki yanında kısa dönemde de bir ilişkinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Konut talebi üzerinde, ağırlıklı ortalama fonlama faizi değişkeninin %1 artışı %13.9 azalmaya neden olmaktadır. Konut talebi üzerinde en etkili değişken döviz kurudur, daha sonra enflasyon ve para arzı gelmektedir. En düşük etki fonlama faiz oranı değişkeni için elde edilmiştir. Etki tepki analizine göre, fonlama faizi değişkeninden kaynaklanan şoklara konut talebi azalarak cevap vermektedir. Varyans ayrıştırma sonuçlarına göre; konut talebindeki değişimin yaklaşık %95’i kendi iç dinamiklerinden kaynaklanırken, faiz oranındaki değişim konut talebindeki değişimin sadece %1’ini açıklamaktadır.
In Turkey, as in the rest of the world, real estate on a macro scale and housing on a micro scale are the focus of attention for households. Housing, which is an indispensable need for shelter, requires decision-makers to pay increasing attention to its relationship with macroeconomic variables due to the economic value it creates. Within the economic value created by housing sector, housing demand is an important and influential variable. Therefore, it has become inevitable for the factors affecting housing demand to receive attention in the academic community. In this regard, the aim of the thesis is to determine the effect of interest rate policies implemented in Turkey on housing demand. In the thesis, monetary policy is discussed from a conceptual and theoretical perspective, and the effects of interest policies on the housing market through the monetary transmission channel are revealed. In addition, housing finance methods, which are thought to be decisive in housing demand, were examined theoretically and country practices were evaluated. In addition, the relationship between interest policies implemented by the central banks of the countries that direct the world economy and are considered important for the housing sector and housing demand was examined. The general opinion in the literature is that housing demand has an inverse relationship with interest policies. The studies conducted in our country are compatible with the literature.Methodologically, this thesis employs econometric analysis to ascertain the impact of interest rate policies, as administered by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), on housing demand. Utilizing monthly sales data for the period 2013.01-2022.03, the analyses reveal not only long-term relationships but also short-term relationships. On housing demand, a 1% increase in the weighted average funding rate variable causes a 13.9% decrease. The most effective variable on housing demand is the exchange rate, followed by inflation and money supply. The lowest effect was obtained for the funding interest rate variable. According to impulse response analysis, housing demand responds to shocks arising from the funding interest variable by decreasing. According to the variance decomposition results while approximately 95% of the change in housing demand stems from its own internal dynamics, the change in interest rate explains only 1% of the change in housing demand.
In Turkey, as in the rest of the world, real estate on a macro scale and housing on a micro scale are the focus of attention for households. Housing, which is an indispensable need for shelter, requires decision-makers to pay increasing attention to its relationship with macroeconomic variables due to the economic value it creates. Within the economic value created by housing sector, housing demand is an important and influential variable. Therefore, it has become inevitable for the factors affecting housing demand to receive attention in the academic community. In this regard, the aim of the thesis is to determine the effect of interest rate policies implemented in Turkey on housing demand. In the thesis, monetary policy is discussed from a conceptual and theoretical perspective, and the effects of interest policies on the housing market through the monetary transmission channel are revealed. In addition, housing finance methods, which are thought to be decisive in housing demand, were examined theoretically and country practices were evaluated. In addition, the relationship between interest policies implemented by the central banks of the countries that direct the world economy and are considered important for the housing sector and housing demand was examined. The general opinion in the literature is that housing demand has an inverse relationship with interest policies. The studies conducted in our country are compatible with the literature.Methodologically, this thesis employs econometric analysis to ascertain the impact of interest rate policies, as administered by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), on housing demand. Utilizing monthly sales data for the period 2013.01-2022.03, the analyses reveal not only long-term relationships but also short-term relationships. On housing demand, a 1% increase in the weighted average funding rate variable causes a 13.9% decrease. The most effective variable on housing demand is the exchange rate, followed by inflation and money supply. The lowest effect was obtained for the funding interest rate variable. According to impulse response analysis, housing demand responds to shocks arising from the funding interest variable by decreasing. According to the variance decomposition results while approximately 95% of the change in housing demand stems from its own internal dynamics, the change in interest rate explains only 1% of the change in housing demand.