Publication: Natural resource abundance and ITS impact on development prospects
Abstract
DOĞAL KAYNAK BOLLUĞU VE KALKINMANIN GELECEĞİNE ETKİSİ Ekonomik büyüme ve diğer makroekonomik sonuçlar dikkate alındığında, doğal kaynakların onlara sahip ekonomilerde olumsuz sonuçlara neden olduğu paradoksu birçok ülke için kanıtlanmıştır. Ancak, doğal kaynak bolluğunun insani gelişmişliği ve sosyal refahı sürdürülebilirlik bağlamında nasıl etkilediği konusu henüz yeterince ilgi çekmiş değildir. Bu çalışma öncelikle insani gelişme ve doğal kaynak zenginliği ilişkilerini kaynak tiplerine göre ayırarak literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Sonrasında, bir panel veri analiziyle, doğal kaynakların, farklı sermaye türlerindeki değişimleri kapsayan ve gelecek kuşakların refahını da dikkate alan hakiki tasarruflar üzerine etkisi incelenmiştir. Bu analizler sonucunda ortaya çıkan ana bulgu, tarımsal ham madde ihracatının insanı gelişmişlikte düşüşe yol açtığı; enerji ve maden gibi kaynakların ihracatının ise sürdürülebilir tasarruflar üzerinde ciddi olumsuz etkiler gösterdiğidir. Bir başka bulgu da kaynak bolluğunun farklı sonuçlarının siyasi rejimler, anayasal kökler, sömürgelik geçmişi, yönetişim kalitesi gibi çeşitli kurumsal çerçevelerle açıklanabilir olduğudur. Son olarak tezin kapsamı, petrol zengini bir ekonominin petrolü olmayan benzer bir ekonomiye göre nasıl geliştiğinin gösterilmesi için iki ülke kıyaslaması yaklaşımıyla genişletilmiştir. Bu amaçla Norveç’in ekonomik gelişiminin petrolün bulunmasından önce ve sonra izlediği yol İsveç ile karşılaştırılarak incelenmiştir. 1970’lere kadar aynı yolu takip eden iki ülkenin kişi başına düşen milli gelirleri arasındaki fark, Norveç’te petrol bulunmasından sonra belirgin şekilde açılmıştır.
NATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCE AND ITS IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS The paradox that natural resources give rise to ill effects in most of the economies endowed with them has been proven for many countries when economic growth and other macroeconomic outcomes are considered. However, how resources affect human development and social well-being in a sustainability context has not attracted enough attention yet. This study contributes to the literature on the links between human development and natural resources distinguishing between types of resources. Then, a panel of countries are examined in terms of the effects of their resources on genuine saving, which is a sustainability indicator that takes into account the welfare of future generations incorporating the changes in different kinds of capital. The main finding is that exportation of agricultural raw materials is associated with significant deterioration in human development, while extractive resource exports, such as energy and minerals, imply severe negative outcomes for sustainable savings. The different effects of resources are explained by various institutional frameworks such as political regimes, constitutional roots, colonial origins and quality of governance. Finally, the scope of the thesis is extended to handle a two-country examination approach in order to demonstrate how an oil-rich economy can develop in comparison to a similar economy which lacks this resource. To that end, the development path of Norway before and after oil is examined with respect to that of Sweden. The two countries, which followed almost identical paths until the 1970s, are found to be significantly diverging in terms of per capita income after Norway found oil.
NATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCE AND ITS IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS The paradox that natural resources give rise to ill effects in most of the economies endowed with them has been proven for many countries when economic growth and other macroeconomic outcomes are considered. However, how resources affect human development and social well-being in a sustainability context has not attracted enough attention yet. This study contributes to the literature on the links between human development and natural resources distinguishing between types of resources. Then, a panel of countries are examined in terms of the effects of their resources on genuine saving, which is a sustainability indicator that takes into account the welfare of future generations incorporating the changes in different kinds of capital. The main finding is that exportation of agricultural raw materials is associated with significant deterioration in human development, while extractive resource exports, such as energy and minerals, imply severe negative outcomes for sustainable savings. The different effects of resources are explained by various institutional frameworks such as political regimes, constitutional roots, colonial origins and quality of governance. Finally, the scope of the thesis is extended to handle a two-country examination approach in order to demonstrate how an oil-rich economy can develop in comparison to a similar economy which lacks this resource. To that end, the development path of Norway before and after oil is examined with respect to that of Sweden. The two countries, which followed almost identical paths until the 1970s, are found to be significantly diverging in terms of per capita income after Norway found oil.