Publication: Türkiye'de taşıt kredilerinin otomobil satışlarına etkisinin ekonometrik analiz
Abstract
Bu çalışmada otomotiv sektörünün ülke ekonomileri için önemi, Türkiye ve dünya otomotiv sektörünün gelişimi ve yıllara dayalı üretim ve dış ticaret istatistiki rakamları incelenmiştir. Ayrıca otomotiv sektörü için son derece önemli olan otomotiv yan sanayinin özelliklerine ve gelişimine değinilmiştir. Bilindiği üzere son dönemde küresel krizin etkisini göstermesi ile kredi koşullarında olumsuzluklar yaşanmaya başlamıştır. Otomotiv piyasasındaki satış adetleri kredi olanaklarının kısıtlanmasıyla düşüş göstermiş ve sektörü negatif etkilemiştir. Bu doğrultuda Türkiye’de taşıt kredilerinin otomobil satışlarına etkisini incelenmiştir. Otomotiv sektörünün Türkiye’de 90’lı yılların başlarında ihracat ve üretimde büyük gelişme göstermesi dolayısıyla veri seti olarak 1992-2008 yılları arası zaman serisi ele alınarak regresyon analizi yapılmıştır. Regresyonda otomobil satışları, döviz kuru, motorlu taşıtlar sanayi üretim indeksi ve taşıt kredileri serileri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlara göre Türkiye’de taşıt kredilerinde meydana gelecek 1 birimlik artış otomobil satış adedini % 268 arttırması beklenmektedir. Otomotiv Sektörü, Taşıt Kredileri, Regresyon
In this study, the automotive sector's importance for national economy, and the development of the automotive sector in Turkey and the world in production and foreign trade statistics according to the figures were examined. Also for the automotive sector’s extremely important features and development of automotive subsidiary industry has been addressed. In the last period is known by showing the effects of global crisis in credit conditions began to live in negativity.Automotive market sales opportunities by credit restrictions and customs have shown a decrease so automotive sector have been negative effects. Therefore car sales in Turkey, its effect on vehicle credits were researched. At the beginning of the automotive sector in Turkey 90 years in the export and production has shown great improvement. For data set as the years between 1992-2008 time-series was made by hand in regression analysis.In regression the automobile sales, the exchange rate, motor vehicles of industrial production index series and vehicle loans are used. According to the study results in Turkey ıf one unit of credit growth occurs, car sales are expected to increase up to 268 %. Automotive sector, Vehicle Loans, Regression analysis
In this study, the automotive sector's importance for national economy, and the development of the automotive sector in Turkey and the world in production and foreign trade statistics according to the figures were examined. Also for the automotive sector’s extremely important features and development of automotive subsidiary industry has been addressed. In the last period is known by showing the effects of global crisis in credit conditions began to live in negativity.Automotive market sales opportunities by credit restrictions and customs have shown a decrease so automotive sector have been negative effects. Therefore car sales in Turkey, its effect on vehicle credits were researched. At the beginning of the automotive sector in Turkey 90 years in the export and production has shown great improvement. For data set as the years between 1992-2008 time-series was made by hand in regression analysis.In regression the automobile sales, the exchange rate, motor vehicles of industrial production index series and vehicle loans are used. According to the study results in Turkey ıf one unit of credit growth occurs, car sales are expected to increase up to 268 %. Automotive sector, Vehicle Loans, Regression analysis