Publication: Parasal birlik, Avrupa Merkez Bankası ve Türkiye’ye yansımaları
Abstract
Para birliğine dahil olan ülkeler, kendi ulusal paraları arasındaki kurların dalgalanma marjını ortadan kaldırarak sabit kur politikası uygulamakta, buna karşın birlik parasını birlik dışındaki ülkelerin paraları karşısında dalgalanmaya bırakarak serbest bir kur politikası izleyebilecekleri gibi, ortak bir dalgalanma politikasını da kabul edebilmektedirler. Parasal birliğin teorik altyapısını oluşturan Optimum Para Sahası (OPS) Teorisi 1960’lı yıllarda ortaya çıkmış olup, parasal birliğin olumlu etkilerinin, olumsuz etkilerinden farkını maksimize edecek bölge büyüklüğünü açıklamaktadır. Gerçekleştirilen parasal birlik her zaman için optimum olmamakla birlikte, parasal birliğe dahil olmanın birlik dışında kalmaya nazaran daha büyük bir iktisadi fayda sağlaması durumunda rasyonel olmaktadır. Birlik ülkeleri arasında entegrasyon derecesinin artması; ülkelerin bağımsız para politikası uygulama ve döviz kurlarını ayarlama esnekliklerini kaybetmelerinden dolayı ortaya çıkabilecek maliyetlerin azalmasını sağlarken, ülkelerin asimetrik şoklar yaşamamalarına da imkan tanımaktadır.Bağımsız döviz kuru ve para politikası uygulama hakkının kaybedilmesi, birlik ülkelerini esnek ücret ve fiyatları ve mobil işgücünü otomatik istikrar sağlayıcı olarak kullanmaya yöneltmektedir. Avrupa Para Birliği’nde (APB’de) nispeten ücret ve fiyat esnekliği sağlanabilirken, işgücü mobilitesinin yetersiz kalışı Birliğin OPS Teorisi’nin en önemli koşulunu yerine getiremediği anlamına gelmektedir.APB, bir OPS olmasa da üyeler açısından önemli avantaj ve dezavantajları beraberinde getirmektedir. Asıl amacın fiyat istikrarının sağlanması olduğu bağımsız Avrupa Merkez Bankaları Sistemi’nde (AMBS’de), para miktarı ve enflasyon hedefinin bir karması olan “Birleştirilmiş Para Stratejisi”nin uygulanması uygun görülmüştür. Türkiye’nin, Avrupa Birliği’ne (AB’ye) üyeliğinin önündeki ekonomik engellerin önemli bir kısmını APB’ye makro ekonomik uyum kriterleri oluşturmaktadır.Parasal Birliğin Türkiye ekonomisi üzerindeki etkisinin diğer üçüncü ülkelere oranla daha büyük olacağı düşünülmektedir.Türkiye, AB’ye entegrasyon yolunda önemli aşamalar kaydetmiş olmakla birlikte, OPS Teorisi çerçevesinde Türkiye’nin henüz APB’ye dahil olmaya hazır olmadığı söylenebilmektedir.
The countries included in the monetary union apply the fixed exchange rate policy by eliminating the floating margin of exchange rates among their local currencies while having the option of letting the union’s money float against the currencies of non-member countries and adopting a free-floating exchange rate policy or a common floating policy. The Optimum Currency Area (OCA) Theory constituting the theoretical fundamental of the monetary union has emerged in 1960s to define the dimensions of the areas which maximizes the difference between positive and negative effects of the monetary union. Although a monetary union so established is not necessarily optimum, a monetary union membership is deemed a rational option when member countries achieve more economical benefits than not being a member to such a union. Increasing the level of integration among the member countries ensures the countries to reduce the costs which may arise from losing the ability of implementing independent monetary policies and exchange rate adjustment flexibility while avoiding the risk of experiencing asymmetric shocks. Losing the right of implementing independent exchange rates and monetary policies directs the member countries to use the flexible prices and wages as well as mobile labour force as automatic means of stability. While the flexibility of wages and prices is achieved relatively by the European Monetary Union (EMU), low level of labour force mobility indicates that the OCA Theory of the Union fails in satisfying the most significant ingredient of the theory. Although it is not an OCA, the EMU brings along some major advantages and disadvantages for the member countries. Implementation of “Unified Monetary Strategy” which is defined as the mixture of money amount and target inflation rate is deemed appropriate by the independent European System of Central Banks (ESCB) for achieving the price stability objective. Macro-economic adaptation criteria are seen as the major barriers standing on the way of Turkey to the EU membership. Effects of the Monetary Union on the Turkish economy are estimated to be more severe than other third countries. Although took giant steps in integration to the EU, it can be said that Turkey is not ready yet to be accepted in the EMU within the framework of the OCA Theory.
The countries included in the monetary union apply the fixed exchange rate policy by eliminating the floating margin of exchange rates among their local currencies while having the option of letting the union’s money float against the currencies of non-member countries and adopting a free-floating exchange rate policy or a common floating policy. The Optimum Currency Area (OCA) Theory constituting the theoretical fundamental of the monetary union has emerged in 1960s to define the dimensions of the areas which maximizes the difference between positive and negative effects of the monetary union. Although a monetary union so established is not necessarily optimum, a monetary union membership is deemed a rational option when member countries achieve more economical benefits than not being a member to such a union. Increasing the level of integration among the member countries ensures the countries to reduce the costs which may arise from losing the ability of implementing independent monetary policies and exchange rate adjustment flexibility while avoiding the risk of experiencing asymmetric shocks. Losing the right of implementing independent exchange rates and monetary policies directs the member countries to use the flexible prices and wages as well as mobile labour force as automatic means of stability. While the flexibility of wages and prices is achieved relatively by the European Monetary Union (EMU), low level of labour force mobility indicates that the OCA Theory of the Union fails in satisfying the most significant ingredient of the theory. Although it is not an OCA, the EMU brings along some major advantages and disadvantages for the member countries. Implementation of “Unified Monetary Strategy” which is defined as the mixture of money amount and target inflation rate is deemed appropriate by the independent European System of Central Banks (ESCB) for achieving the price stability objective. Macro-economic adaptation criteria are seen as the major barriers standing on the way of Turkey to the EU membership. Effects of the Monetary Union on the Turkish economy are estimated to be more severe than other third countries. Although took giant steps in integration to the EU, it can be said that Turkey is not ready yet to be accepted in the EMU within the framework of the OCA Theory.