Finansal kriz ve 1994 krizinin Türkiye’ de finans sektörü üzerine etkileri

Abstract

Finans Sektörü, yapısı gereği krizlere duyarlı bir sektördür. Fon fazlası olan kesimden, fon ihtiyacı olan kesime kaynak aktarımı ve aracılık işlevi gören finansal kurumlar, sosyal bir hizmet işlevini görürken aynı zamanda her ticari kurum gibi kar etmeyi amaçlarlar. Bu kurumların kar etme amacı ile tasarruf sahiplerinin, mevduatlarını güvence altında tutma güdüsü birbiriyle çelişir. Çünkü bankalar, mevduat olarak topladıkları fonları, kredi olarak, fon ihtiyacı olanlara en karlı şekilde aktarmaya çalışırlar. Finans kurumları, doğal olarak plasman karlılığı yüksek olan kuruluşlara yönelirlerken, mevduat sahipleri de mevduatlarına yüksek faiz ve güvence isterler. Bu noktada mevduat sahiplerinin amacıyla, finans kurumlarının amacı çatışmaktadır. Finansal Kuruluşlar, mevduat faizi ve operasyonel maliyetlerin üzerinde bir oranla kredilerini verdikleri takdirde kar söz konusudur. Geri dönüşü olmayan kredilerin tehlikeli bir şekilde artması, sahip olunan hisse senedi ve gayrimenkul fiyatlarındaki büyük dalgalanmalar, kısaca finansal kurumların aktif kalitesinin bozulması krizin ilk belirtileri olarak algılanabilir. Finansal Kurumlar, topladıkları mevduatların yanında, sermayeleri ve uluslararası piyasalardan sağladıkları fonlarla da kredi kullanımına aracılık ederler. Dolayısıyla, uluslararası piyasalardaki döviz kurlarının ve faiz oranlarının değişmesi, doğal olarak tüm piyasaları, ekonomiye yön veren finansal kurumları ve bu kurumlarla ilişkide olanları da etkilemektedir. 1980'li yıllardan itibaren, dünyada liberal ekonomik politikaların yaygın bir şekilde uygulamaya konulması, serbest ticareti engelleyen unsurları aşamalı bir biçimde ortadan kaldırarak, ekonomiler açık ve birbirinden etkilenir hale getirilmiştir. Bunun bir sonucu olarak, herhangi bir ülkede meydana gelen bir ekonomik istikrarsızlık, önce o ülkenin parasal ve finansal sektörlerini daha sonra da reel sektörlerini etkilerken, ülke ekonomisinin gücü, dış ticaret hacmi ve ülkeye giren yabancı sermayenin büyüklüğü gibi faktörlere bağlı olarak, değişen derecelerde başka ülkelere de yayılabilmektedir. Finansal Kriz ve 1994 Krizinin Türkiye'de finans sektörü üzerindeki etkilerinin incelendiği bu araştırmanın birinci bölümünde, bankacılıktaki risk kavramı, risk türleri araştırılıp, sistematik risk ve sistematik olmayan riskler anlatılmıştır. Çalışmanın ikinci bölümünde, öncelikle bankacılık krizi ve finansal kriz teorileri ile nedenleri incelenmiş; daha sonra son dönemlerde dünyada yaşanan ekonomik kriz örnekleri ele alınmış ve günümüzde pek çok ülkeyi de içine alan global kriz ve Türkiye'ye olan etkilerinden kısaca bahsedilmiştir. Üçüncü Bölümde, Türkiye'de 1994 yılında yaşanan finansal krizi hazırlayan sebepler ve makroekonomik dalgalanmalar, krizin bankacılık sektörüne etkileri ve kriz sonucu oluşturulan 5 Nisan İstikrar paketinin özellikleri anlatılmıştır. 1995-1998 yılları itibariyle Türk bankacılık sektörü, genel olarak değerlendirilmiştir. The Finance sector is one which is sensitive to crises due its structure. While providing a social service, the financial institutions which act as intermediaries to transfer funds from those who hold extra funds to those who are in need of funds, are incorporated to make profit like many other commercial organisations. There is contradiction between such institutions' purpose to obtain profit and the depositors' motive to protect their deposits. This is due to the fact that, banks try, in the most profitable way, to transfer the funds which they collect in the form of deposits, to those who are in need of funds, in the form of loans. While the financial institutions naturally want to do business with the organisations in which the placement profitabilities are high, depositors seek high interest rates and guarantees for their deposits. At this point, the depositors' objectives are in contradiction with the financial institutions' objectives. When financial institutions make loans at a rate exceeding the interest rates applied to the deposits and over the operating costs, they can obtain profit. A dangerous increase in bad loans, serious fluctuations in stocks and in prices of real-estate owned, may cause, deterioration in the financial institutions' asset guality, which may be considered as the first signs of a crisis. Financial institutions act as intermediaries in providing loans by using their own capital and the funds they borrow from international markets, in addition to those savings they collect from depositors. Therefore, fluctuations in the value of the foreign currencies and in interest rates in international markets naturally affects all the markets, financial institutions, and other related organisations which lead the economy. Along with the broad implementation of liberal economic policies worldwide since the 1980s, world economies have become open to, and affected by, each other which gradually removes the factors impeding free trading. Consequently, any economic instability which takes place in a country, while first affecting that country's monetary and financial sectors and then its real sectors, also affects other countries in different levels according to that country's economic power and foreign trade volume as well as the amount of foreign capital invested therein. RISK AND TYPES OF RISKS IN THE BANKING SYSTEM The term risk, which often expresses a negative or an unwanted event, means a possibility that an event or series of events may take place. Systematic Risk Systematic risk with respect to banking may appear as a result of the problems in that country's economy and may also increase to serious levels by rumours that spread as a result of negative expectations. Systematic risk is much higher in poor and developing countries when compared to that of developed countries. The best way to auoid systematic and banking risks is to apply macro-economic policies. Due to political reasons, it is in fact not easy for central governments to make the necessary macro-economic decisions to prevent such systematic risk. Non-Systematic Risk Credit Risks: These are banks' risks other than Systematic Risks (Market Risk). In case of non repayment of loans and interest accrued when due, financial institution can be considered as having credit risks. In order to minimize their credit risks, banks should not concentrate their placements on certain sectors or firms. If a bank, whose goul is to reduce risk makes a good sectoral risk distribution and works with many different firms in different sectors, and if the financial position of one of such firms gets weak, that bank will not seriously be affected from such event. Liguidity Risk: This risk is one of the most important risk which causes banks go bankrupt following a crisis. For this reason, banks are required by the laws of the related country to keep as reserves a certain amount of cash funds or other instruments in the nature of cash. Capital Resources Sufficiency and Asset Quality Risk: Banks with sound capital resources and less indebtedness are advantageous when compared to those with feeble capital resources, open positions and those operating with foreign funds. Banks need good Assets / Liabilities management to be successful. The compatibility of assets structure of banks with their structure of resources, and their assets' ability to be convertible into cash show their assets quality. Currency Risk: As a result of globalisation of the banking system, banks are now able to borrow loans in foreign currencies from abroad. The totality of a bank's foreign currencies at its Assets side of its balance-sheet together with other foreign currencies at the Liabilities side of its balance-sheet give us that bank's foreign currency position. Insufficient Assortment: By increasing their product ranges, banks may minimize their non-systematic risks which arise from insufficient assortments. Management and Misuse Risk: Human beings are the most important factor for banks since they act in the services sector. In order to ensure proper performance of the organisation, the management should be effective, experienced energetic and have a good background. The risk of misuse is one of the most important reasons of a bank's insolvency. Unless a bank is seriously damaged, the volume of such misuse risk can not be determined. Supervision and Control Risk: As they are institutions accepting funds from both public and private organisations, and transfer resources to those who are in need of such funds, banks require the supervision and control of the public. In order to prevent such a crisis, a country should have rational macro-economic policies and a sound financial system. The crisis experienced by the banking sector is considered more important than those experienced by other commercial sectors due its effects on the whole economic infrastrucsture. It can also be expressed that financial crises arises from unbalanced macro-economic environment as well as from insufficient control over the corporate banking system. The stable implementation of economic measure policies plays an important role in minimizing the disorder in balance and development. CRISIS THEORIES IN BANKING The financial crisis that has occured in many parts of the world in recent years and the banking sector crisis which is one of the main causes of such financial crises, have been affecting all the already developed and developing countries. The following discusson highlights some of the essential theoretical studies carried out on the banking sector crisis Asymmetric Data: Means giving information about one of the parties or about the goods to one of the parties during the decision making phase within financial markets, while keeping the other party uninformed. According to this asymmetric data approach, debtors have more possibility than lenders to obtain information, because debtors have more information about the projects they undertake. Bank panic arises from the lack of trust of depositors, who have savings with banks, with respect to their ability to withdraw their deposits. In case the deposits are withdrawn from all banks as a result of loss of trust in such financial institutions, this may also generate the termination of such big and financially very strong banks. According to Fischer: When individuals, companies and banks fail to have sufficient cash assets to meet their debts, this produces an excessive indebtedness. In such a case, a change in debtors' or creditors' judgement may boost the crisis. Debtors who are not able to repay or to obtain new funds for repaymens, may be forced by their creditors to liquidate their assets. If this procedure spreads and if it is not shifted by the monetary authorities, a liquidity crisis and a deep recession may start. According to Casual Withdrawal Approach: When all the depositors choose to withdraw their deposits, a bank will be unable to pay them all. The mechanism which contributes to the possibility of a panic is the banks' arrangements to put in order the demands of their customers. In environments where banks are not subject to laws and regulations, banks will often inevitably face panics. Financial Crisis or Banking Crisis appear when the total amount of liabilities of financial institutions exceeds the market value of their assets. The banking crises affects the entire real economy by overwhelming the banking system. Bankruptcies of banks cause much more serious problems than those of non-financial institutions due to the banks' intermediary function in the economy. Banks' bankruptcies cause the credit volume to decrease and raise the costs of loans being made to the real sector as well as interrupting the use of loans by companies. In order to prevent financial crisis or to minimise its effects, it is necessary to hold the system in liquidity, to adjust the solvency at reasonable levels and to maintain the system as to encourage the payments of debts prior to their maturity dates. Foreign investors have, along with the effects of the Russian crisis, started in August 1998 to sell their treasury-bill positions in Turkey and transfer their funds abroad. Though the inflation rate was low, the outflow of foreign capital gave rise to an increase in domestic real interest rates by increasing the demand for liquidity. Besides this, since a large amount of foreign debts should have been paid through the last three months of that year and re-borrowing was needed, obtaining foreign loans at reasonable costs became difficult owing to the crises in the markets abroad and loan terms became shorter. FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1994 IN TURKEY AND, THE EFFECTS ON BANKING SECTOR The government had recourse to intensive domestic and foreign borrowing and took out loans from the Turkish Central Bank due to the failure in increasing the revenues while public expenditures were continually rising. The government have increased the interest rate limits and got trapped in a vicious circle in paying its debts by accepting new debts. Such developments in the economy constituted a basis for the intensive economic crisis experienced in 1994. When the government tried to provide an interest rate for public instruments lower than the equilibrium interest rate, 6 of 9 public biddings which were to be performed between October-December in the same year (1993), were cancelled. An excess of liquidity then arose, which could not be absorbed by the Istanbul Stock Exchange. The US Dollar gained 54 % against TL from the beginning of 1994 until April. At that point all the policies of the government had seriously lost their prestige and the rush to close the foreign exchange deposit accounts with banks in a very short period turned into a general rush on banks, including the deposit accounts in Turkish Lira. The shock which arrived along with the crisis seriously decreased the total assets of the banking system and changed their assets / liabilities structures. At the beginning of 1994, the crisis which occurred as a result of efforts to decrease the interest rates applied to public borrowings and which gained speed along with the devaluation of the national currency, gave rise to outflows of huge amounts from the system. In the first quarter of 1994 there was a serious decrease in the international foreign exchange reserves of the Turkish Central Bank, the interest rates in the monetary markets increased and the international rating institutions downgraded Turkey's rate and this environment of deep distrust caused the depositors to run banks to withdraw their deposits. Along with the flow of the withdrawn deposits first from strong banks and government bonds and then from foreign currencies, the system experienced a serious crisis and this crisis has spread over the country and threatened the whole banking system and the domestic economy due to the Central Bank's failure to appropriately intervene in time. The reason why the banking crisis in our country in 1994 have deteriorated and become widespread was the inducement of the inflow of foreign capital which is in fact called hot money, for long years pursuant to the policies applied. The interest in foreign currencies increased at the beginning of 1994 due to the negative factors that occurred in the country's economy, and owing to the rumours that the foreign currency deposits would be converted to TL deposits, withdrawals of deposits from banks turned into a general movement in a short period, including the deposits in TL., and a large amount of money was pulled out of the system. This fast movement caused the banks which had minor capital and insufficient liquidity to experience hard times, and gave rise to the bankruptcy of Marmara Bank Impex Bank and TYT Bank and stock exchange intermediaries Turkinvest, Çarmen and Pasifik. The crisis spread owing to the Central Bank's failure to intervene in the markets in time and at the necessary levels which threatened the whole banking system and the domestic economy. Along with the unlimited insurance on savings deposits which was instituted on May 5, 1994, the political authority tried to end the crisis by restoring confidence in the banking system. The increase in the interest rates of loans and the calls for prepayments caused serious problems between the banks and those, both individuals and companies, who utilised loans made by such banks. The Stabilisation Program Introduced on April 5, 1994 : The Stabilisation Program was introduced on April 5, 1994 following the Crisis. Devaluation of TL : The Central Bank gave up declaring official exchange rates. A system through which the daily exchange rate was to be assessed according to the daily transactions of 10 banks was instituted. In other words, the devaluation of TL depended upon the free market. Insurance on Deposits : With a view to stop the erosion of deposits from banks and to prevent liquid funds from flowing to foreign currencies, the totality of the deposits were covered by the savings deposits insurance in line with the rise of the interest limits. The deposit withdrawals from banks were thus stopped. Sharp Price Rises in Goods Produced by Public Economic Enterprises (PEE) : For ensuring stability in the markets, the prices of the goods which were produced by public economic enterprises were sharply increased in order to cause the prices to realize the supply / demand equilibrium at a higher level and to prevent the upward tendency of the prices. Increase in Public Tax Rates : Taxes and funds imposed on tobacco and spirits and fuel oil were increased and it was decided that the tax rebates were to be paid annually. A one-time additional tax intended to be applied for was imposed. Limitations on Public Expenditures : Investments were limited and decisions were made as to the sale of housing provided by the state, no payment for overtime, and suspension of new employment. Shutdown of the PEE and Privatization of Some of the PEE : The government decided to privatize or shut down, as soon as possible, 23 of the PEE which were considered to be fruitless. The Strategy Implemented Following the Crisis of 1994 and the Results Being evaluated today, the April 5 Stability Program which was intended for the implementation of both short-term measures and long-term structural reforms, has been found prosperous in short-term measures while being considered unsuccessful with respect to long-term structural reforms. Moreover, no substantial results could be achieved with the privatization covered by the program. The shortage of demand on the commodities market seriously affected all the sectors of the economy and the Stability Program of 1994 caused stagflation in the economy. Also in 1997, a number of reforms in relation to taxes, social security, privatization, public personnel regime and local governments were still needed. The interest rates which increased along with the crisis experienced at the beginning of 1994, the contracted volume of cash and production and the suspended credits reflected in the real sector, and the regression in real production and national income caused a rise in unemployment. CONCLUSION During the subject financial crisis, the monetary authorities and the governments can prevent a disastrous downfall that may take place in the balance of payments and in the economy in general by intervening in, or supporting, the banks experiencing hard times. In order to adapt their financial markets to international standards, making them less vulnerable, and to prevent probable risks, the countries will, by determining the means to remove any probable risk, be prosperous as much as they require the financial institutions to be audited by the internationally accepted independent auditors and supervisors and to take necessary measures, if needed. Additional capital contribution to banks which are at a bottleneck, and restructuring of the banking system can be achieved only if the structural reforms in the real sector are implemented and if the macroeconomic stability is provided. The financial fragility which was experienced during the 1994 crisis in Turkey, is still in question. Though the inflation rate is tending to be on the decline in recent years, the treasury's domestic borrowing with high interest rates has induced banks to shift their classical function of making loans to purchasing treasury bills. However, the high interest rates for deposits in TL caused banks to make placements in TL, i.e. to hold open positions, by borrowing foreign currency loans while the foreign exchange rates were equal to the inflation rate. When most companies of which the working capital is poor and which receive loans from banks at high costs failed in repaying their debts upon the contraction of demand and profit due to the global crisis, the rate of problematic loans with banks have increased. Today where the globalisation is continually increasing, the structure of the financial sector entails rapid and continuous relations among all the institutions in the system. Thus, any negative event which may arise in an institution, rapidly affects the whole financial system. One of the essential conditions to avoid in crisis periods with the least damage possible, is to keep a strong foreign exchange reserve and the second condition is to achieve high and stable figures in exports. Export is the most secure resource of foreign exchange, and it increases the volume of domestic production, employment and the added value. As all the markets are in a process of integration today, and in case of lack of equilibrium, all the necessary measures should immediately be taken by closely observing the macro variants such as foreign exchange and interest rate in the international markets. Observing the domestic macro variants is The financial fragility which was experienced during the 1994 crisis in Türkey, is still in question. Though the inflation rate is tending to be on the decline in recent years, th treasury's domestic borrowing with high interest rates has induced banks to shift their classical function of making loans to purchasing treasury bills. However, the high interest rates for deposits in TL caused banks to make placements in TL i.e. to hold open positions, by borrowing foreign currency loans while the foreign exchange rates were equal to the inflation rate. When most companies of which the working capital is poor and which receive loans from banks at high costs failed in repaying their debts upon the contraction of demand and profit due to the global crisis, the rate of problematic loans with banks have increased. Today where the globalisation is continually increasing, the structure of the financial sector entails rapid and continuous relations among all the institutions in the system. Thus, any negative event which may arise in an institution, rapidly affects the whole financial system. One of the essential conditions to avoid in crisis periods with the least damage possible, is to keep a strong foreign exchange reserve and the second condition is to achieve high and stable figures in exports. Export is the most secure resource of foreign exchange, and it increases the volume of domestic production, employment and the added value. As all the markets are in a process of integration today, and in case of lack of equilibrium, all the necessary measures should immediately be taken by closely observing the macro variants such as foreign exchange and interest rate in the international markets. Observing the domestic macro variants is qualy as important as observing those variants in the international markets. What is important is to take the measures in time by noticing any probable bottleneck.