Publication: Para politikalsı stratejisi olarak enflasyon hedeflemesi ve Türkiye uygulaması
Abstract
Bu çalışma, para politikasının, alternatif stratejilerinin analizine yönelik olarak yapılmış ve enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisinin en etkin strateji olduğu tezinin kanıtlanmasına ve ülke uygulamalarının da desteği ile enflasyon hedeflemesinin ön koşullarının sağlanması ile Türkiye içinde bir alternatif olabileceği tezinin kanıtlanması için yapılmıştır. 2000’li yıllar itibari ile enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisinin, en etkin strateji olduğunun kanıtlanması ile Türkiye’de de bu stratejinin uygulanmasına yönelik çalışmalar hızlanmıştır. 2000 Kasım ve 2001 Şubat krizleri, Türkiye için artık yeni bir istikrar konusu stratejinin Türkiye’de de uygulanması gerekliliğini ortaya koymuştur. Bu bağlamda, 2000’li yılların başından itibaren yapılan yasal düzenlemeler ve diğer ülke örneklerinin olumlu yol göstericiliği ile enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisinin Türkiye’de de uygulanmasına karar verilmiştir. Enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisinin en etkin para politikası stratejisi olduğunun kanıtlanması için, diğer alternatif para politikası stratejilerine yönelik olarak, merkez bankasının bağımsızlığı, kurala dayalı politika, şeffaflık, hesap verebilirlik ve disipline edilmiş maliye politikalarının rolünün incelenmesi ile birlikte, ülke uygulaması yöntemi kullanılarak çalışma yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın ilk iki bölümde konunun teorik temelleri ve kavramsal çerçevesine ilişkin, üçüncü bölümde enflasyon hedeflemesinin diğer stratejilere göre üstünlüklerine ilişkin, dördüncü bölümde ülke uygulamalarından elde edilen kazanımlar ve son bölümde de enflasyon hedeflemesinin Türkiye uygulamasına yönelik değerlendirmelere yer verilmiştir. Burada asıl amaç son 30 yıldır yüksek ve kronik enflasyon ile yaşayan Türkiye’nin gerekli koşulların sağlanması halinde bu ekonomik zorluktan kurtulabileceğine yönelik tezin kanıtlanmasıdır.
This survey has been carried out with a view to analyzing alternative strategies for monetary policy and its aim is to prove that monetary policy can be an alternative for Turkey provided that the prerequisites of inflation targeting are met with the help of its implementations and another aim of this survey is that inflation targeting strategy is the most effective one. As regards the early years of 2000, inflation targeting strategy having proven to be the most effective one, efforts made to implement it in Turkey have gained momentum. The economic crisises in November 2000 and February 2001 in Turkey revealed the need for the implementation of the strategy in question through a new economic stability program. In that respect, with new legislation made as of early 2000 and through positive guidance by similar examples in other countries, Turkey has decided to implement inflation targeting strategy. To prove that inflation targeting strategy is the most effective monetary policy, practice was carried out through national implementation method, while the role of central bank independence, regular policy, transparency, accountability and disciplined fiscal policy were simultaneously examined so as to compare inflation targeting strategy against alternative monetary policy strategies. In the first two sections of the survey, the theoretical foundations and the conceptual frame of the subject have been dealt with. In the third section, the superiority of inflation targeting strategy over other strategies has been pointed out. Gains made through national implementation have been elaborated in the fourth section and, in the final section, the implementation of inflation targeting in Turkey has been evaluated. The primary aim here is to prove the thesis that, providing the required conditions are met, Turkey, which has been experiencing high and chronic inflation for the past 30 years, can get rid of her ever-lasting economic hardship.
This survey has been carried out with a view to analyzing alternative strategies for monetary policy and its aim is to prove that monetary policy can be an alternative for Turkey provided that the prerequisites of inflation targeting are met with the help of its implementations and another aim of this survey is that inflation targeting strategy is the most effective one. As regards the early years of 2000, inflation targeting strategy having proven to be the most effective one, efforts made to implement it in Turkey have gained momentum. The economic crisises in November 2000 and February 2001 in Turkey revealed the need for the implementation of the strategy in question through a new economic stability program. In that respect, with new legislation made as of early 2000 and through positive guidance by similar examples in other countries, Turkey has decided to implement inflation targeting strategy. To prove that inflation targeting strategy is the most effective monetary policy, practice was carried out through national implementation method, while the role of central bank independence, regular policy, transparency, accountability and disciplined fiscal policy were simultaneously examined so as to compare inflation targeting strategy against alternative monetary policy strategies. In the first two sections of the survey, the theoretical foundations and the conceptual frame of the subject have been dealt with. In the third section, the superiority of inflation targeting strategy over other strategies has been pointed out. Gains made through national implementation have been elaborated in the fourth section and, in the final section, the implementation of inflation targeting in Turkey has been evaluated. The primary aim here is to prove the thesis that, providing the required conditions are met, Turkey, which has been experiencing high and chronic inflation for the past 30 years, can get rid of her ever-lasting economic hardship.