Publication: Gümrük birliği sürecinde Türkiye'nin dış ticaret yapısındaki gelişmeler
Abstract
GÜMRÜK BİRLİĞİ SÜRECİNDE TÜRKİYE’NİN DIS TİCARET YAPISINDAKI GELİŞMELER Bu çalısmanın amacı Türkiye ile AB arasında Gümrük Birliği’nin yürürlüğe girmesiyle birlikte Türkiye’nin AB ülkeleriyle gerçeklestirdiği ihracat ve ithalat değerlerindeki değismeleri analiz etmektir.1964 yılında Ankara Antlasması’nın imzalanmasıyla birlikte baslayan Türkiye AB ortaklık iliskilerinin hazırlık dönemi, 1/ 95 sayılı Ortaklık Konseyi Kararı’nın kabul edilmesi ile birilikte son dönemine girmistir. 1.1.1996 tarihinde Gümrük Birliği yürürlüğe girmesiyle birlikte yoğunluk kazanan AB ile Türkiye arasındaki iliskilerin ekonomik analizi de önem kazanmaya baslamıstır. Çalısmada da, ekonomik bütünlesme teorisi, AB-Türkiye iliskileri ve Gümrük Birliği öncesi ve sonrası dönemde dıs ticaretimizdeki değismelere yer verilmis, Türkiye’nin AB ile olan ihracat ve ithalatında Gümrük Birliğinin etkilerini test etmek amacıyla 1987:Q4 – 2008:Q1 dönemi kapsayacak sekilde zaman serisi verileri kullanılarak AB ile gerçeklestirilen ihracat ve ithalat denklemleri tahmin edilmistir.Bu modellere Chow testi uygulanarak tahmin edilen modellerde yapısal değisimin olup olmadığı arastırılmıstır.Aynı zamanda Gümrük Birliği’nin olası etkilerini analiz edilmesi için kukla değisken yaklasımından da yararlanılmıstır.Yapısal kırılma testi sonrasında AB ile gerçeklestirilen ihracat için tahmin edilen modelde ihracatımızda Gümrük Birliği öncesi döneme göre bir azalma yasanırken, Gümrük Birliği ile birlikte AB’den gerçeklestirilen ithalat modelinde önemli yapısal farklılıklar olduğu bulunmus, Gümrük Birliği sonrasında AB ile yapılan ithalatın Gümrük Birliği öncesi döneme göre daha fazla olduğu ortaya konulmustur.
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE TURKEY’S FOREIGN TRADE STRUCTURE DURING THE PROCESS OF CUSTOMS UNION The aim of this study is to analyze the changes of Turkey's exports and imports with EU countries with the entry of customs union into force between Turkey and EU. Preparation period of EU-Turkey partnership relation, which has started by the signing of Ankara Agreement in 1964, has entered its last period with the adoption of 1/ 95 of Association Council Decision. With the entrance of Customs Union into force on 01.01.1996, economic analysis of the intensive relationship between EU and Turkey has began to gain importance. In this study, the theory of economic integration, the EU-Turkey relations and changes in foreign trade due to Customs Union have been mentioned and export and import equations with EU have been estimated by using time-series data in the range of 1987:Q4 and 2008:Q1 in order to test the effects of Customs Union betweeen EU and Turkey. By applying Chow Test to these models, it has been investigated whether a structural change has occurred in the predicted models. At the same time, dummy variable approach has been used to analyze possible effects of the Customs Union. After the structural break test performed, export with EU has been diminished in respect to the period before the entrance of Customs Union according to the predicted model for export with EU. There has been also significant structural differences in import model with EU before and after the period of 1996. It has been seen that imports are more than the imports before the entrance to Customs Union.
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE TURKEY’S FOREIGN TRADE STRUCTURE DURING THE PROCESS OF CUSTOMS UNION The aim of this study is to analyze the changes of Turkey's exports and imports with EU countries with the entry of customs union into force between Turkey and EU. Preparation period of EU-Turkey partnership relation, which has started by the signing of Ankara Agreement in 1964, has entered its last period with the adoption of 1/ 95 of Association Council Decision. With the entrance of Customs Union into force on 01.01.1996, economic analysis of the intensive relationship between EU and Turkey has began to gain importance. In this study, the theory of economic integration, the EU-Turkey relations and changes in foreign trade due to Customs Union have been mentioned and export and import equations with EU have been estimated by using time-series data in the range of 1987:Q4 and 2008:Q1 in order to test the effects of Customs Union betweeen EU and Turkey. By applying Chow Test to these models, it has been investigated whether a structural change has occurred in the predicted models. At the same time, dummy variable approach has been used to analyze possible effects of the Customs Union. After the structural break test performed, export with EU has been diminished in respect to the period before the entrance of Customs Union according to the predicted model for export with EU. There has been also significant structural differences in import model with EU before and after the period of 1996. It has been seen that imports are more than the imports before the entrance to Customs Union.