Publication: Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme: Azerbaycan örneği
Abstract
Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki 1970’li yıllarından itibaren ekonomi yazında önemli bir tartışma konusu olarak kalmıştır. Her ne kadar da çok sayıda uygulamalı çalışma uzun dönemde finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasında ilişkinin varlığına yönelik kuvvetli bulgular sunsa da, finansal sektörün gelişimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedenselliğin yönünde farklılıklar olmuştur. Yapılan çalışmalarda nedensellik ilişkisinin yönü farklı ülke örneklerine, farklı yöntemlere ve kullanılan finansal gelişme değişkenlerine göre farklı sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır. Arz öncüllü hipotezi savunanlar, finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyümeye artırıcı etki sağladığını, talep takipli hipotezi savunanlar ilişki yönünün ekonomik büyümeden finansal gelişmeye doğru olduğu belirtmişlerdir. Bu çalışma ile Azerbaycan’da finansal gelişme ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki arz öncüllü ya da talep takipli olarak adlandırılan iki hipotez çerçevesinde analiz edilmiştir. Bu amaçla, ülkemizde finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ile ilgili 2001:1 - 2014:4 dönemine ait üçer aylık ekonomik veriler kullanılmıştır. Bu veriler ışığında finansal gelişme ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin incelenmesinde Toda-Yamamoto testi uygulanmıştır. Çalışmadan ülkemize yönelik elde edilen sonuçlara göre nedensellik ilişkisinin analize göre finansal gelişmeden ekonomik büyümeye doğru olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Böylece, literatürdeki McKinnon-Shaw tarafından ileri sürülen ve “arz öncüllü hipotez” olarak adlandırılan görüş desteklenmiştir. nansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi.
Since 1970’s the relationship between financial development and economic growth has remained an important issue of debate in economic literature. Even though many empirical studies provide strong evidence on there is a long run relationship between financial development and economic growth, the direction of causality between financial sector development and economic growth, in particular, has attracted a great deal of attention. According to supply-leading hypothesis financial development leads to economic growth, however demand following hypothesis asserts that the direction of the relationship runs from economic growth to financial development. The direction of causality relation was different according to different econometric methods, variables and as examples of the different countries. This study analyzed the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Azerbaijan, in the context of supply-leading and demand following hypothesis. For this purpose, quarterly data from 2001:1 to 2014:4 is used, relating to the financial development and economic growth. Under this information causality relationship between financial development and economic growth is tested by using Toda-Yamamoto method. The direction of causality based on the results for our country is identified from financial development to economic growth. Thus, “supply leading hypothesis” which put forward by McKinnon-Shaw in economic literature is supported. Key Words: Financial Development, Economic growth, Toda-Yamomoto Causality Test.
Since 1970’s the relationship between financial development and economic growth has remained an important issue of debate in economic literature. Even though many empirical studies provide strong evidence on there is a long run relationship between financial development and economic growth, the direction of causality between financial sector development and economic growth, in particular, has attracted a great deal of attention. According to supply-leading hypothesis financial development leads to economic growth, however demand following hypothesis asserts that the direction of the relationship runs from economic growth to financial development. The direction of causality relation was different according to different econometric methods, variables and as examples of the different countries. This study analyzed the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Azerbaijan, in the context of supply-leading and demand following hypothesis. For this purpose, quarterly data from 2001:1 to 2014:4 is used, relating to the financial development and economic growth. Under this information causality relationship between financial development and economic growth is tested by using Toda-Yamamoto method. The direction of causality based on the results for our country is identified from financial development to economic growth. Thus, “supply leading hypothesis” which put forward by McKinnon-Shaw in economic literature is supported. Key Words: Financial Development, Economic growth, Toda-Yamomoto Causality Test.