Publication: Planning of the renewable energy roadmap by energy system analysis and modeling in burdur
Abstract
BURDUR İLİNİN YENİLENEBİLİR ENERJİ YOL HARİTASININ ENERJİ SİSTEM ANALİZİ VE MODELLEMEYLE PLANLANMASI Günümüz enerji tüketim ve üretiminin geldiği boyutlar incelendiğinde, enerji tüketim ve üretimin planlanmasında sürdürülebilir bir yol haritası yardımıyla güncel ve bilimsel yöntemler kullanılarak yapılmak zorunda olunduğu rahatlıkla görülebilir. Bunun için bölgenin ihtiyaçlarını iyi analiz etmek, sektörleri bilmek ve potansiyelleri optimum şekilde kullanmak gerekir. Enerji, ekonomi ve ekoloji yaklaşımını kullanan, teknoloji bazlı inceleme yapabilen TIMES metodu, ülkelerin ve daha küçük ölçekteki yerleşim yerlerinin enerji modellemesini yapmak için uygun bir yöntem olduğunu kanıtlamıştır. Bu çalışmada örnek olarak seçilen Burdur ili için bir enerji yol haritası çıkarmak hedeflenmiştir. Yol haritasının çıkarılması için ilin üretim ve tüketim sektörleri incelenmiş ve bir referans enerji sistemi ortaya konmuştur. Çalışma 2016-2031 yılları arasını kapsamaktadır. 2016 yılını ele alan temel senaryo oluşturulup çeşitli alt senaryolar ile karşılaştırma yapılarak incelenmiştir. İlk senaryoda Türkiye’nin 2023 güneş enerjisi hedeflerinin Burdur iline indirgenmesi ve bunun sonuncunda ekonomik ve çevresel etkilerinin incelenmiştir. İkinci senaryo Burdur’un elektrik tüketiminin %10 kadarı için batarya teknolojisi ile depolama yapmanın etkilerini ortaya koymuştur. Üçüncü senaryo hayvansal atık bazlı biyogaz üretim potansiyelinin değerlendirilmesidir. Dördüncü senaryoda, konvansiyonel yakıtlar ile çalışan otomobil talebinin %10 kadarının hidrojen yakıtlı araçlar ile değiştirilmesinin ile olan etkilerini incelemiştir. Son senaryo ise Burdur ilinin tüm elektrik tüketimini yenilenebilir kaynaklardan karşılanması istendiğinde gereken ekonomik, teknoloji ve çevresel sonuçlarını ortaya konmuştur. Bu amaç için rüzgâr, biyogaz ve güneş değerlendirilmiştir.
PLANNING OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY ROADMAP BY ENERGY SYSTEM ANALYSIS AND MODELING IN BURDUR When we look up today’s energy consumption and production levels, it is obvious that the energy planning of the cities should be done by up-to-date and scientific methods with the help of sustainable road maps. To achieve this, one must analyze the needs of the cities, have sufficent information about the sectors and utilize the potential on an optimum level. The TIMES method is a proven method in order to build energy models of the countries and cities via technology rich energy, economy, ecology and engineering approach. In this thesis, Burdur province selected as example region to build an energy model and road map. To build this road map, energy production and consumption sectors are studied, and reference energy system was built. Time horizon of the study is decided to be between years 2016-2031. Base scenario was created for 2016-2031 and it was investigated by comparing with various alternative scenarios. Alternative scenarios was investigated under energy, economy and ecology subtitles. In the first scenario, year 2023 solar targets of Turkey downgraded to Burdur to see effects both economically and environmentally. 10% backup storage technology implementation is the second alternative scenario to see the economic effects. Manure based biogas implementation is the third alternative scenario that ran over the base. Fourth scenario is demand side management of 10% conventional cars by allocation with fuel cell cars. The aim of the final scenario is to see technological, economic and environmental effect of what if Burdur happens to generate all of its electricity needs from renewable sources. In this context, biogas, wind and solar potentials evaluated.
PLANNING OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY ROADMAP BY ENERGY SYSTEM ANALYSIS AND MODELING IN BURDUR When we look up today’s energy consumption and production levels, it is obvious that the energy planning of the cities should be done by up-to-date and scientific methods with the help of sustainable road maps. To achieve this, one must analyze the needs of the cities, have sufficent information about the sectors and utilize the potential on an optimum level. The TIMES method is a proven method in order to build energy models of the countries and cities via technology rich energy, economy, ecology and engineering approach. In this thesis, Burdur province selected as example region to build an energy model and road map. To build this road map, energy production and consumption sectors are studied, and reference energy system was built. Time horizon of the study is decided to be between years 2016-2031. Base scenario was created for 2016-2031 and it was investigated by comparing with various alternative scenarios. Alternative scenarios was investigated under energy, economy and ecology subtitles. In the first scenario, year 2023 solar targets of Turkey downgraded to Burdur to see effects both economically and environmentally. 10% backup storage technology implementation is the second alternative scenario to see the economic effects. Manure based biogas implementation is the third alternative scenario that ran over the base. Fourth scenario is demand side management of 10% conventional cars by allocation with fuel cell cars. The aim of the final scenario is to see technological, economic and environmental effect of what if Burdur happens to generate all of its electricity needs from renewable sources. In this context, biogas, wind and solar potentials evaluated.