Publication: IMF -Türkiye ilişkilerinin tarihsel gelişimi ve ekonomiye etkileri
Abstract
IMF-TÜRKİYE İLİŞKİLERİNİN TARİHSEL GELİŞİMİ VE EKONOMİYE ETKİLERİ Uluslararası Para Fonu, 1929 Dünya Ekonomik Bunalımı ve hemen ardından ortaya çıkan II. Dünya Savaşı’nın yarattığı ekonomik tahribatları, ödemeler dengesi sorunlarını, uluslararası parasal sistemde ortaya çıkan dengesizlikleri ve dış ticaret daralmalarını aşmak için bir aracı olarak kurulmuştur. Ancak, dünya ekonomisinde yaşanan gelişmelere bağlı olarak IMF’nin rolü de değişmekte ve 1980’li yıllar sonrasında yapısal uyum programları adı altındaki uygulamalarıyla IMF etkinliğini artırmakta, küreselleşmeyle birlikte yaşanan krizlerde önemli bir mercii durumuna gelmektedir. Bu çalışmada, IMF-Türkiye ilişkilerinin tarihsel gelişimi ve IMF’nin Türkiye ekonomisine etkileri ele alınmaktadır. Çalışma beş bölümden meydana gelmektedir. Birinci bölümde IMF kurulmadan önceki dünya ekonomisi ve Türkiye ekonomisinin görünümü hakkında bilgi verilmiştir. İkinci bölümde IMF’nin tarihsel gelişim süreci incelenmiştir. Bu süreçte, öncelikle Bretton Woods öncesi para sistemi, Bretton Woods Konferansı, IMF’nin kuruluşu, temel amaçları, IMF üye ülke ilişkileri, kotalar, organizasyon yapısı, mali kaynakları, IMF’nin üyelerine sağladığı mali imkanlar ve gözetimler ele alınıp incelenmiştir. Üçüncü bölümde, IMF istikrar programları ve IMF istikrar uygulayan ülkelerden örnekler verilerek IMF programlarının başarısı araştırılmıştır. Dördüncü bölümde, IMF-Türkiye ilişkileri tarihi bir perspektif içerisinde anlatılmış, hangi koşulların Türkiye’yi IMF’ye götürdüğü ve IMF ile yapılan bütün anlaşmalar ışığında Türkiye ekonomisinin makroekonomik göstergeleri değerlendirilmiştir. Beşinci bölümde ise IMF ile yapılan anlaşmalar sonucunda uygulanan istikrar programlarının Türkiye ekonomisine olan etkilerini ölçmek amacıyla VAR ekonometrik modeli ile IMF’den alınan kredilerin ödemeler dengesi, cari açık, büyüme, enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Ayrıca bu bölümde IMF ile anlaşma yapılan ve yapılmayan dönemlerde makroekonomik göstergelerde anlamlı bir fark olup olmadığı t testi kullanılarak karşılaştırılmıştır. IMF (Uluslararası Para Fonu), IMF-Türkiye ilişkileri, istikrar programları, makroekonomik göstergeler, VAR (Vektör Otoregresif Model).
THE HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF IMF TURKEY RELATIONSHIPS AND ITS EFFECTS ON ECONOMY International Money Fund has been established as an intermediary to overcome the 1929 World Economical Depression and economic destruction of Wold War II, balance of payment problems, imbalance of international monetary system and the shrink of international trade. However the role of the IMF has changed with the new developments in World economy, and after 1980 with its applications called “structural adjustment programme” IMF has increased its effectiveness and it has become an important authority on the crisis arised with the globalization. In this study the historical development of IMF and Turkey relationship and its effects on Turkish economy is discussed. This study consists of five parts. On the first part, the outlook of World economy and Turkish economy before IMF is summarized. On the second part, the historical development of IMF is analyzed. During this, initially the monetary system before Bretton Woods conference, establishment of IMF and its main purposes, relationship of IMF with its member countries, quotations, organizational structure of IMF, its financial resources, and the financial resources provided to member countries by IMF and the supervisions to member countries by IMF have been investigated and discussed. On the third part, IMF stability programmes and the countries followed IMF stability programmes are examplified and the success of stability programmes is investigated. On the fourth section the relationship of IMF and Turkey is reviewed with a historical perspective. The economical conditions lead Turkey to apply IMF , and all of the agreements made between IMF and Turkey, and as a result of those, the macroeconomical parameters of Turkish economy are evaluated. On the fifth and last section, the effects of the IMF stability programmes on Turkish economy, applied by Turkey as a result of the agreements made with IMF are analyzed with VAR econometrical model. The effects of IMF loans on balance of payments, current account deficits, economical growth, inflation rates are analyzed. Besides on this part, the macroeconomical parameters are compared with T test, to find out if there are any meaningful difference on those parameteres between the periods with agreements made with IMF, and the periods without any agreements. Key words: IMF (International Money Fund ), IMF Turkey relationships, Economical stability programmes, macroeconomical parameters, VAR (Vector Autoregressive Model).
THE HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF IMF TURKEY RELATIONSHIPS AND ITS EFFECTS ON ECONOMY International Money Fund has been established as an intermediary to overcome the 1929 World Economical Depression and economic destruction of Wold War II, balance of payment problems, imbalance of international monetary system and the shrink of international trade. However the role of the IMF has changed with the new developments in World economy, and after 1980 with its applications called “structural adjustment programme” IMF has increased its effectiveness and it has become an important authority on the crisis arised with the globalization. In this study the historical development of IMF and Turkey relationship and its effects on Turkish economy is discussed. This study consists of five parts. On the first part, the outlook of World economy and Turkish economy before IMF is summarized. On the second part, the historical development of IMF is analyzed. During this, initially the monetary system before Bretton Woods conference, establishment of IMF and its main purposes, relationship of IMF with its member countries, quotations, organizational structure of IMF, its financial resources, and the financial resources provided to member countries by IMF and the supervisions to member countries by IMF have been investigated and discussed. On the third part, IMF stability programmes and the countries followed IMF stability programmes are examplified and the success of stability programmes is investigated. On the fourth section the relationship of IMF and Turkey is reviewed with a historical perspective. The economical conditions lead Turkey to apply IMF , and all of the agreements made between IMF and Turkey, and as a result of those, the macroeconomical parameters of Turkish economy are evaluated. On the fifth and last section, the effects of the IMF stability programmes on Turkish economy, applied by Turkey as a result of the agreements made with IMF are analyzed with VAR econometrical model. The effects of IMF loans on balance of payments, current account deficits, economical growth, inflation rates are analyzed. Besides on this part, the macroeconomical parameters are compared with T test, to find out if there are any meaningful difference on those parameteres between the periods with agreements made with IMF, and the periods without any agreements. Key words: IMF (International Money Fund ), IMF Turkey relationships, Economical stability programmes, macroeconomical parameters, VAR (Vector Autoregressive Model).