Publication: Dünyada para kurulu uygulamaları ve İsrail’ de 1980’ lerde uygulanan istikrar programlarının etkinliğinin analizi
Abstract
Para kurulu veya benzeri bir uygulamanın, Türkiye'de enflasyonu önlemede etkili olup olamayacağını tespit edebilmek için yapılan Ekonometrik çalışmanın sonuçlarını özetleyen şekillerden de görüleceği üzere; ikinci grupta yer alan şekillerde, para kurulunun enflasyonla mücadelede etkili olabilmesi için gerekli olan NDV, para arzı ve enflasyon ilişkileri tam olarak belirlenememiştir. Örneğin MI ve rezerv para için elde edilen bulgularda Ml ve rezerv para ile NDV arasında ilişki bulunamamıştır. M2 için verilen çözüm sonucunda bu ilişki görülmekle birlikte, para kurulunun diğer bir şartı olan para arzından enflasyona doğru bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Dolayısıyla bu grupta yer alan çözüm sonuçlarından yararlanma imkanı yoktur. Buna karşılık birinci grupta yer alan çözüm sonuçlarından, para kurulunun enflasyonu önlemede etkili olup olmayacağı hakkında bazı tespitleri yapma imkanı sözkonusudur. ARSK altında SUR çözüm sonuçlarına bakıldığında, tüm parasal göstergeler için enflasyonla para arzı arasında karşılıklı bir etkileşimin olduğu görülmektedir.Başka bir ifade ile para arzından enflasyona, enflasyondan da para arzına doğru giden bir ilişki sözkonusudur. Ayrıca parasal göstergelerle NDV ve DOL arasında doğrudan veya dolaylı olarak karşılıklı bir ilişkinin olduğu görülmektedir.Bu ilişkilerden yola çıkarak; enflasyon, NDV, parasal göstergeler ve DOL arasında kapalı halka, yani bir spiralin oluştuğu belirlenmiş olup, Türkiye'deki enflasyon sürecinin kendi kendini besleyen veya kendini sürdüren bir özelliğe sahip olduğunu söylemek mümkündür. Diğer bir ifade ile, mevcut enflasyon ile diğer değişkenler arasında sürüp giden bir kısır döngü mevcuttur. Böyle bir ekonomik yapının veri alınması durumunda, hem merkez bankası açısından hem de para kurulu açısından enflasyonla yapılacak mücadelenin oldukça güç olacağı görülmektedir. Parasal genişleme enflasyonu uyarırken, enflasyonun da parasal genişlemeyi, daha hızlı bir biçimde uyarması, para arzının dışsal olma niteliğini iyice kaybetmiş ve Merkez Bankası'nın denetiminden çıkmak üzere olduğu anlamına gelmektedir. Bu husus anti-enflasyonist politikalarda daha fazla gecikilmemesi gerektiğini ortaya koyan bir uyarı niteliğindedir (AYAYDIN, 1993, s.49). Enflasyonun kendi kendini besleyen bir özelliğe sahip olması, bir cok tamamlayıcı önlemin birlikte alınmasını gerektirmektedir. Para kurulu sisteminde hem parasal hem de mali önlemlerin birbirini tamamlayıcı nitelikte alınma, enflasyonla mücadelede başarının temel şartı olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bunlardan birinin eksikliği para kurulunun başarısız olmasına neden olacaktır. Para kurulu veya benzeri bir uygulamanın enflasyonla mücadelede başarılı olabilmesi, enflasyonla diğer değişkenler arasındaki kısır döngüyü ortadan kaldıracak veya önemli ölçüde azaltacak yan önlemlerin alınması durumunda ancak mümkün olacaktır. Bunun için vergi giderlerinin arındırılarak enflasyon karşısında daha esnek hale getirilmesi, bütçe açıklarının açık finansmanla karşılanmasının online geçilmesi ve enflasyon beklentilerini önleyici tedbirlerin alınması gerekir. Yapılan ekonometrik çalışmada da gorüleceği gibi; döviz kuru ile enflasyon arasındaki karşılıklı ilişkiden yararlanarak, döviz kurunun enflasyonist baskılara yer vermeyecek şekilde düzenlenebilmesi durumunda, bunun enflasyonla mücadele politikalarına katkısının olacağı muhakkaktır. Bilindiği üzere, döviz kurunun enflasyonla ilişkisi iki noktada ortaya çıkmaktadır. Birincisi arz, yönünden olup, kurdaki artışların ithal girdilerinin maliyetini yükseltmesini ifade etmektedir. İkincisi de talep yonünden enflasyonu yükseltmesidir. Bu da kurun, enflasyon oranından daha fazla yükseltilmesi durumunda artan ihracata bağlı olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Yine dış borçlarla ve dış ticaretle ilgili hesapların Merkez Bankasi'nda görülmesi ile dolar kurundan rezerv paraya doğru bir ilişki de ortaya çıkmaktadır (ULENGIN 1995, S.I 11). Kabul etmek gerekir ki Türkiye'deki enflasyonun salt parasal tedbirlerle önlemek mümkün değildir. Ancak parasal önlemlerin mali önlemlerle desteklenmesi durumunda başarı şansının yüksek olacağı muhakkaktır.
CURRENCY BOARDS: ISSUES AND EXPERIENCES As the new developments in the communication field started to substitute the old ones and as using them started to pervade very quickly, a new era began. An era that would give the opportunity to converge all the economies… This was the beginning of the globalization. The 20th century was the era in which the globalization affected all the countries. The concept of being reachable to the farthest markets very easily was considered an opportunity for the development of the countries. Only for the ones that had very strong and credible currency it turned out to be really beneficial, for the others however, it was nearly destructive. According to most of the surveys, not having a strong and credible currency was the common characteristic of the economies that were badly affected by the globalization. The concept of globalization brought the concept of free market economy. Having a strong and credible currency was the fundamental feature of the free market economy. The countries that lacked these characteristics were condemned to face very strong difficulties; they even were pushed to bankrupt. In order to deal with the disadvantages of the effects of globalization, the countries started to seek for new solutions. Especially, the widespread effects of the very big economical crisis that occurred in Mexico and Asia forced the countries to take new measurements within a very short period of time. For them, there were only two substantial choices. The first one was building up an entirely independent central bank, and the other one was establishing a currency board arrangement. Yet the second choice was not the solution that could sustain the stability of the economy forever. However for a short-term period, it could be a better and faster way of gaining the credibility. Struggles for gaining stability recalled the Currency Board Arrangements. The currency board experiences indicated that CBA could really be a suitable solution for small and open economies and for economies where the credibility of the fiscal and monetary authorities has been nearly depleted. In order to gain credibility and stability some countries chose the central banking system and others chose the CBA. A currency board can be defined as an institutional arrangement that guarantees the exchange of domestic currency and coin (sometimes only currency but mostly both) at a fixed exchange rate with a small spread, for an anchor or metropolitan currency. (WALTERS, Alan; World Bank Discussion Papers No:207, 1992) John Williamson says it is an arrangement under which a country fixes its exchange rate and maintains 100 percent backing of its money supply with foreign exchange. A currency board has normally been used to hold a fixed exchange rate vis-à-vis some major international currency, which is called the reserve currency. In principle, one could allow for a certain element of variability in the exchange rate, at least a preannounced decelerating crawl intended to wind down inflation gradually. Similarly, it would be possible to fix the exchange rate in terms of a basket rather than of one currency. But the general practice of currency boards has been to hold a rigidly fixed exchange rate in terms of a single reserve currency, and most advocates of currency boards take it for granted that is the right policy. Hence the main analysis assumes a fixed exchange rate in terms of the reserve currency. A currency board is defined as a monetary institution that issues base money solely in exchange for foreign assets, specifically the reserve currency. Base money consists of notes and coin (cash, for convenience), and may also include the other reserves, or some of the other reserves, held by commercial banks. Under a currency board system, however, unlike the practice when a country has a central bank, the commercial banks may be allowed, or even required, to hold much or all of their reserves (other than vault cash) in the form of the reserve currency. Michael Devereux says, a currency board is defined as a monetary institution that issues base money fully backed by a foreign anchor or reserve currency, and fully convertible into the reserve currency at a fixed rate on demand. According to Anne-Marie Gulde; currency board combines three elements: a fixed exchange rate between a country's currency and an anchor currency, automatic convertibility, and a long-term commitment to the system, often made explicit in the central bank law. The main reason for countries to consider a currency board is to demonstrate that they are pursuing an anti-inflationary policy. This research shows that CBAs may be effective permanent arrangements for small open economies that wish to preserve the benefits of the belongings to a broader currency area. They are useful transitional arrangements for countries that wish to delay the introduction of a fullfledged central bank until they build up central banking expertise or develop financial markets. CBAs may also be of interest to high inflation countries adopting strong stabilization programs that wish to enhance the credibility of monetary policy. (BALINO and ENOCH, Currency Board Arrangements Issues and Experiences, IMF 1997, p. 30) According to Alan Walters, Currency Boards grew up fairly naturally as a consequence of colonial expansion. At first, sovereigns or other metropolitan currencies were the circulating media of the dominions and colonies. Whenever metropolitan paper currency got destroyed, however, the value of that currency was lost completely to the colony. Then they thought: why not substitute their colonial paper currency so that if their paper is lost, it won't be like losing a Bank of England pound note. So colonial bank notes were substituted for the metropolitan currencies. The pounds notes could be deposited in London and earn seigniorage. The colonial currency boards were similar in form to Bank of England after the act of 1944. The Bank of England Act of 1944 established the currency board form for the issue department of the Bank of England. The Bank of England could issue additional currency only if it had 100 percent reserve above the 14 million fiduciary issues. Essentially that Bank was a currency board. They developed in the British colonies (later to become the Commonwealth), and similar institutions also developed in French and German colonies. Historically they worked extraordinarily well. In Ghana there were no cocoa trees in the 1900s. With the currency-board regime and fairly open markets, Ghana produced about 40 percent of the world's cocoa by the time (1957) it was independent. The other colonies also grew very rapidly under the currency board system. (WALTERS, Alan; World Bank Discussion Papers, No: 207, 1992)
CURRENCY BOARDS: ISSUES AND EXPERIENCES As the new developments in the communication field started to substitute the old ones and as using them started to pervade very quickly, a new era began. An era that would give the opportunity to converge all the economies… This was the beginning of the globalization. The 20th century was the era in which the globalization affected all the countries. The concept of being reachable to the farthest markets very easily was considered an opportunity for the development of the countries. Only for the ones that had very strong and credible currency it turned out to be really beneficial, for the others however, it was nearly destructive. According to most of the surveys, not having a strong and credible currency was the common characteristic of the economies that were badly affected by the globalization. The concept of globalization brought the concept of free market economy. Having a strong and credible currency was the fundamental feature of the free market economy. The countries that lacked these characteristics were condemned to face very strong difficulties; they even were pushed to bankrupt. In order to deal with the disadvantages of the effects of globalization, the countries started to seek for new solutions. Especially, the widespread effects of the very big economical crisis that occurred in Mexico and Asia forced the countries to take new measurements within a very short period of time. For them, there were only two substantial choices. The first one was building up an entirely independent central bank, and the other one was establishing a currency board arrangement. Yet the second choice was not the solution that could sustain the stability of the economy forever. However for a short-term period, it could be a better and faster way of gaining the credibility. Struggles for gaining stability recalled the Currency Board Arrangements. The currency board experiences indicated that CBA could really be a suitable solution for small and open economies and for economies where the credibility of the fiscal and monetary authorities has been nearly depleted. In order to gain credibility and stability some countries chose the central banking system and others chose the CBA. A currency board can be defined as an institutional arrangement that guarantees the exchange of domestic currency and coin (sometimes only currency but mostly both) at a fixed exchange rate with a small spread, for an anchor or metropolitan currency. (WALTERS, Alan; World Bank Discussion Papers No:207, 1992) John Williamson says it is an arrangement under which a country fixes its exchange rate and maintains 100 percent backing of its money supply with foreign exchange. A currency board has normally been used to hold a fixed exchange rate vis-à-vis some major international currency, which is called the reserve currency. In principle, one could allow for a certain element of variability in the exchange rate, at least a preannounced decelerating crawl intended to wind down inflation gradually. Similarly, it would be possible to fix the exchange rate in terms of a basket rather than of one currency. But the general practice of currency boards has been to hold a rigidly fixed exchange rate in terms of a single reserve currency, and most advocates of currency boards take it for granted that is the right policy. Hence the main analysis assumes a fixed exchange rate in terms of the reserve currency. A currency board is defined as a monetary institution that issues base money solely in exchange for foreign assets, specifically the reserve currency. Base money consists of notes and coin (cash, for convenience), and may also include the other reserves, or some of the other reserves, held by commercial banks. Under a currency board system, however, unlike the practice when a country has a central bank, the commercial banks may be allowed, or even required, to hold much or all of their reserves (other than vault cash) in the form of the reserve currency. Michael Devereux says, a currency board is defined as a monetary institution that issues base money fully backed by a foreign anchor or reserve currency, and fully convertible into the reserve currency at a fixed rate on demand. According to Anne-Marie Gulde; currency board combines three elements: a fixed exchange rate between a country's currency and an anchor currency, automatic convertibility, and a long-term commitment to the system, often made explicit in the central bank law. The main reason for countries to consider a currency board is to demonstrate that they are pursuing an anti-inflationary policy. This research shows that CBAs may be effective permanent arrangements for small open economies that wish to preserve the benefits of the belongings to a broader currency area. They are useful transitional arrangements for countries that wish to delay the introduction of a fullfledged central bank until they build up central banking expertise or develop financial markets. CBAs may also be of interest to high inflation countries adopting strong stabilization programs that wish to enhance the credibility of monetary policy. (BALINO and ENOCH, Currency Board Arrangements Issues and Experiences, IMF 1997, p. 30) According to Alan Walters, Currency Boards grew up fairly naturally as a consequence of colonial expansion. At first, sovereigns or other metropolitan currencies were the circulating media of the dominions and colonies. Whenever metropolitan paper currency got destroyed, however, the value of that currency was lost completely to the colony. Then they thought: why not substitute their colonial paper currency so that if their paper is lost, it won't be like losing a Bank of England pound note. So colonial bank notes were substituted for the metropolitan currencies. The pounds notes could be deposited in London and earn seigniorage. The colonial currency boards were similar in form to Bank of England after the act of 1944. The Bank of England Act of 1944 established the currency board form for the issue department of the Bank of England. The Bank of England could issue additional currency only if it had 100 percent reserve above the 14 million fiduciary issues. Essentially that Bank was a currency board. They developed in the British colonies (later to become the Commonwealth), and similar institutions also developed in French and German colonies. Historically they worked extraordinarily well. In Ghana there were no cocoa trees in the 1900s. With the currency-board regime and fairly open markets, Ghana produced about 40 percent of the world's cocoa by the time (1957) it was independent. The other colonies also grew very rapidly under the currency board system. (WALTERS, Alan; World Bank Discussion Papers, No: 207, 1992)