Publication: Faiz teorileri ve Türkiye’ nin faiz politikası
Abstract
Çalışmamızın odak noktasını oluşturan Türkiye'nin faiz politikasını faiz teorilerini ortaya koymadan değerlendirmek mümkün değildir. Faiz zaruret borçlanmalarından en geniş alanları ile ticari ve mali işlemlerde uygulanan bir olgu halini alınca bunun varlık nedenini ve teorik esasını araştırmak ihtiyacı duyulmuştur. Bu alanda bir çok izah tarzları öne sürülmüştür. Mesela bir kısım teorisyen faiz'i, sermayenin verimliliğe katılma payı olarak açıklamış, bir diğeri ise sermayeyi bizzat kullanmaktan vazgeçmenin bedeli olarak açıklamışlardır. Çalışmamızda Türkiye'nin faiz politikası esas itibariyle 1980 öncesi ve sonrası olmak üzere iki dönem içerisinde incelenmiştir. Güdümlü faiz döneminde yönetimlerin uzun aralıklarla değiştirdiği faiz oranlarının genellikle enflasyonun altında kalması negatif reel faiz oranlarını meydana getirmiştir. Bu şartlar altında ekonominin yeterli dövizi yaratamaması ve değişen dünya konjonktürü ortamında elverişli şartlarla dış kredi imkanlarının daralması karşısında büyümenin duraklaması ve enflasyonist baskıların artmasıyla 1980'li yılların başında politika değişikliğine gidilmiştir. Böylece uygulamaya konulan istikrar programıyla birlikte pozitif reel faiz dönemine adım atılmıştır.ancak gerek üretim kesiminin gerekse mali kesimin ekonomi politikasındaki bu radikal değişime uyum sağlamasa yaşadığı güçlükler ve kuramsal altyapıdaki eksiklikler nedeniyle yaşanan bazı iniş çıkışlardan sonra tam anlamıyla serbest faiz sistemine geçiş 1988 yılında gerçekleşmiştir. 1991 ve sonrasında, merkez bankasının faiz hedeflemesini bırakmış olması nedeniyle bir faiz politikasından söz etmek mümkün değildir. 1980 sonrası ortaya çıkan yüksek faiz -enflasyon kısır döngüsü içinden çıkabilmek için faiz oranlarının da aşağı çekilmesi tek başına yeterli olmayacaktır. Çözüm, uygulanacak etkin maliye politikalarıyla kamu kesimi borçlanma gereğinin makul seviyelere çekilmesi, kararlı uygulayıcılarla ileriye yönelik beklentilerin olumlu yönde etkilenmesi suretiyle ekonomi üzerinde faiz yükünün düşürülmesi olacaktır.
It is not possible to evaluate Turkey's interest rate policy that is on focus in this study without first presenting theories of interest. As interest has became a phenomenon widely prevalent in the areas ranging from forced loans to commercial and fiscal transactions, the investigation of its raison d'être and theoretical foundations proved neccessary. Many perspectives of explanation were proposed in this area. For instance, some teorists explained interest as value of the added capital to efficency; another of them explained it as value of the abstanence from using capital in person. In the current study, Turkey's interest rate policy was mainly investigated in the pre- and post-period of 1980. In the forced interest period, the fact that interest rates , which administrations changed after long periodic gaps, generally stayed below the inflation rate led to the emergence of negative interest rates. The inability of economy under these circumstances to create foreing exchance, the cease of development due to the narrowing down of the posibilities to get foreign loans in the changing world context of that time and the increase of the inflationist pressures invoked a policy change at the begining of the years of 1980. Thus with the stability program in use a step was taken toward a period of positive interest rate. However after the zigzag experienced because of the difficulty and the lack of adaptation in both the production and the fiscal parts to the radical change in the economic policy and olso because of the weaknesses of the theoretical backgraund, it was in 1988 that the transition to a liberal interest system was achieved completly. In 1991 and the post-period, due to the abondenment of the central bank of interest targetting, it is not possible to talk about an interest rate policy. To pull down the interest rates in order to break out of the vicious circle of high interest-inflation after 1980 will not be enough on its own. Solution is to remove the load of interest from upon the economy by pulling the need for public sector loans to a fair value and by influencing the future expectations positively with vigorous administrators.
It is not possible to evaluate Turkey's interest rate policy that is on focus in this study without first presenting theories of interest. As interest has became a phenomenon widely prevalent in the areas ranging from forced loans to commercial and fiscal transactions, the investigation of its raison d'être and theoretical foundations proved neccessary. Many perspectives of explanation were proposed in this area. For instance, some teorists explained interest as value of the added capital to efficency; another of them explained it as value of the abstanence from using capital in person. In the current study, Turkey's interest rate policy was mainly investigated in the pre- and post-period of 1980. In the forced interest period, the fact that interest rates , which administrations changed after long periodic gaps, generally stayed below the inflation rate led to the emergence of negative interest rates. The inability of economy under these circumstances to create foreing exchance, the cease of development due to the narrowing down of the posibilities to get foreign loans in the changing world context of that time and the increase of the inflationist pressures invoked a policy change at the begining of the years of 1980. Thus with the stability program in use a step was taken toward a period of positive interest rate. However after the zigzag experienced because of the difficulty and the lack of adaptation in both the production and the fiscal parts to the radical change in the economic policy and olso because of the weaknesses of the theoretical backgraund, it was in 1988 that the transition to a liberal interest system was achieved completly. In 1991 and the post-period, due to the abondenment of the central bank of interest targetting, it is not possible to talk about an interest rate policy. To pull down the interest rates in order to break out of the vicious circle of high interest-inflation after 1980 will not be enough on its own. Solution is to remove the load of interest from upon the economy by pulling the need for public sector loans to a fair value and by influencing the future expectations positively with vigorous administrators.