Publication: Gayrimenkul piyasası ve değerleme yöntemlerinde COVID-19 salgını etkilerinin incelenmesine yönelik bir araştırma
Abstract
COVID-19 salgınının ülkemizde görüldüğü tarihten kısa zaman sonra emtia fiyatlarında yaşanan yüksek enflasyon ile birlikte inşaat sektöründe arz problemi görülmüştür. Gayrimenkul enflasyonu ise genel itibariyle yurtiçi enflasyon ortalamasının üstünde seyretmiştir. Konut krizi barınma krizine dönüşmüş, gayrimenkul değerleme alanında brüt kira çarpanı, pazarlık payı oranları, indirgeme oranı ve değerleme metotlarına yaklaşım algısı vb. parametreler değişmiştir. Salgın etkisinde geçen zaman diliminde birçok kanun, yönetmelik ve düzenleme getirilmiş veya değiştirilmiştir. Gelinen noktada yöneticiler, kamu kurumları, STK’lar, medya organları ve meslek odaları sorunun çözümüne yönelik çalışmalar yapmakta veya yapılan çalışmalara destek olmaktadır. Tez kapsamında salgının gayrimenkul fiyat artışına ve değerleme yöntemlerine etkisi ile çözüm önerilerine yönelik, yalnızca SPK lisanslı gayrimenkul değerleme uzmanlarının katılım sağladığı anket araştırması yapılmış ve süreç mercek altına alınmaya çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen veriler, çapraz tablo analizlerinde Fisher testi kullanılarak IBM SPSS 22 analiz edilmiş ve bulgular test istatistiklerinin anlamlılık değerlerine (p<0.05) göre yorumlanmıştır. Salgının inşaat ve gayrimenkul sektörüne etkisini dünya çapında değerlendiren katılımcıların çoğunluğa denk gelen %40,6’sı 10 üzerinden 5-7 etki derecesini seçerken, ülke çapında değerlendirenlerin çoğunluğa denk gelen %33,1’i 7-9 olarak işaretlemiştir. Ayrıca salgın döneminde yöneticiler tarafından alınan kararların gayrimenkul fiyatlarındaki artışa etkisine yönelik verilen cevaplar katılımcıların sektörde bulundukları yıla göre anlamlı düzeyde farklılık göstermiştir. Buna göre 9 yıl ve üzeri sektörde faaliyet gösteren katılımcıların %50’si salgın döneminde yöneticiler tarafından alınan kararların COVID-19 salgını sonrası ülkemizdeki gayrimenkul fiyatlarındaki artışa etkisini 10 olarak puanlamıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar COVID-19 salgının olumsuz etkilerinin proaktif bir yaklaşım ile minimize edilebilme imkanının kaçırıldığını ortaya koymaktadır.
Shortly after the COVID-19 epidemic was seen in our country, supply problems were seen in the construction sector with the high inflation experienced in commodity prices. Real estate inflation, on the other hand, was generally above the domestic inflation average. The housing crisis has turned into a shelter crisis, and in the field of real estate valuation, the gross rent multiplier, the bargaining share rates, the discount rate or the perception of approach to valuation methods etc. parameters have changed. During the time period under the influence of the epidemic, many laws, regulations, and regulations were introduced or amended. At this point, managers, public institutions, NGOs, media organs, and professional chambers work towards the solution of the problem or support the work done. Within the scope of the thesis, survey research was carried out in which only CMB licensed real estate appraisers participated for the effect of the epidemic on real estate price increase and valuation methods and solution proposals, and the process was tried to be examined. The data obtained were analyzed with the IBM SPSS 22 program using the Fisher test in cross-table analyzes and the findings were interpreted according to the significance values of the test statistics. Although 40.6% of the participants who evaluated the impact of the epidemic on the construction and real estate sector worldwide, which corresponded to the majority, compared to the 5-7 effect rating out of 10, 33.1% of those who evaluated it nationwide, marked 7-9. In addition, the answers given to the effect of the decisions taken by the managers during the epidemic period on the increase in real estate prices differed significantly compared to the year the participants were in the sector. Accordingly, 50% of the participants operating in the sector for 9 years or more rated the effect of the decisions taken by the managers during the epidemic period on the increase in real estate prices in our country after the COVID-19 epidemic as 10. The results reveal that the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have been missed by the possibility of minimizing them with a proactive approach.
Shortly after the COVID-19 epidemic was seen in our country, supply problems were seen in the construction sector with the high inflation experienced in commodity prices. Real estate inflation, on the other hand, was generally above the domestic inflation average. The housing crisis has turned into a shelter crisis, and in the field of real estate valuation, the gross rent multiplier, the bargaining share rates, the discount rate or the perception of approach to valuation methods etc. parameters have changed. During the time period under the influence of the epidemic, many laws, regulations, and regulations were introduced or amended. At this point, managers, public institutions, NGOs, media organs, and professional chambers work towards the solution of the problem or support the work done. Within the scope of the thesis, survey research was carried out in which only CMB licensed real estate appraisers participated for the effect of the epidemic on real estate price increase and valuation methods and solution proposals, and the process was tried to be examined. The data obtained were analyzed with the IBM SPSS 22 program using the Fisher test in cross-table analyzes and the findings were interpreted according to the significance values of the test statistics. Although 40.6% of the participants who evaluated the impact of the epidemic on the construction and real estate sector worldwide, which corresponded to the majority, compared to the 5-7 effect rating out of 10, 33.1% of those who evaluated it nationwide, marked 7-9. In addition, the answers given to the effect of the decisions taken by the managers during the epidemic period on the increase in real estate prices differed significantly compared to the year the participants were in the sector. Accordingly, 50% of the participants operating in the sector for 9 years or more rated the effect of the decisions taken by the managers during the epidemic period on the increase in real estate prices in our country after the COVID-19 epidemic as 10. The results reveal that the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have been missed by the possibility of minimizing them with a proactive approach.