Publication: Incorporating risk analysis in bidding for construction constracts of Turkish state
Abstract
RİSK ANALİZİNİN DEVLET YAPIM İHALELERİNE VERİLEN TEKLİFLERE DAHİL EDİLMESİ Taahhüt işi, müteahhitlerin maruz kalmış olduğu herkesçe bilinen pek çok mali sıkıntı sebebiyle, her zaman fazlaca riskli bir iş olarak algılanmıştır. Doğal olarak, bu işin bünyesindeki riskleri ele alan çaba ve araştırmalar geniş çapta ilgi çekmektedir. Diğer tüm yatırımcılar gibi, müteahhitler de pozitif nakit akışı ile işlerinin devamlılığını sağlamak zorundadırlar. Bu sadece bir şarta bağlıdır: sözleşme hükümlerine göre elde edilen gelir gerçekleşen maliyetin üzerinde olmalıdır. Müteahhidin hesabına olan sözleşme hükümleri, ihaleyi kazanan teklifine göre belirlenmektedir. Dolayısıyla, teklif hazırlama aşaması, esasen müteahhidin ilerideki yatırımının risklerini yönetebildiği ilk ve son konumudur. Literatür, çeşitli bakış açılarından taahhüt işinin risklerinin analizine/ yönetimine odaklanan pek çok araştırma içermektedir. Analiz/ yönetim, veri/ birikim gerektirir. Ancak, yepyeni bir yapım projesinin ihalesine hazırlanırken, geçmiş tecrübelere ilişkin olanlar hariç ne bilgi ne de birikim mevcuttur. Kaldı ki, her bir devletin farklı risk unsurları (örneğin politik, mali) olması sebebiyle, her bir devlet için ayrı risk modeli geliştirilmelidir. Geçmiş araştırmalar, aşırı karmaşık oluşları ve bundan kaynaklanan kullanışsızlıkları ile Türkiye’nin kendine özgü koşulları nedeniyle, Devlet yapım ihalelerine teklif hazırlanması faaliyetinin risk analizi gereksinimlerini karşılayamamaktadırlar. Bu tez, Türkiye Devleti yapım ihalelerine teklif veren profesyonellere uygun bir risk analizi tekniği araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır.
INCORPORATING RISK ANALYSIS IN BIDDING FOR CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS OF TURKISH STATE Contracting has been always perceived as an extremely risky business owing to several infamous financial incidents of contractors. Naturally, efforts and researches on dealing with the inherent riskiness of the business have been arousing interest widely. As all other investors, contractors are also compelled to keep continuity of their business with positive cash flow. This depends on just one condition: revenue collected according to contract provisions must be over the realized cost. Contract provisions these are on account of the contractors are set according to their winning bid. Thus, tender preparation phase is actually the first and last position of the contractors where they can freely manage the risk of their future investment. Literature contains numerous researches focusing on analyzing/ managing risks of construction business through several points of views. Analysis/ management requires data/ knowledge. However, neither data nor knowledge except the ones of past experiences is available to bidding for a brand new construction project. Besides, due to distinct risk factors (i.e. political, financial) of different states, risk model ought to be uniquely developed for each state. Previous researches cannot fulfill the risk analysis requirements of bidding for construction contracts of Turkish State, due to their exorbitant complexity and resultant impracticability, and unique conditions of the Turkey. This thesis aims to research a risk analysis technique suitable for conservative construction professionals bidding for Turkish State contracts.
INCORPORATING RISK ANALYSIS IN BIDDING FOR CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS OF TURKISH STATE Contracting has been always perceived as an extremely risky business owing to several infamous financial incidents of contractors. Naturally, efforts and researches on dealing with the inherent riskiness of the business have been arousing interest widely. As all other investors, contractors are also compelled to keep continuity of their business with positive cash flow. This depends on just one condition: revenue collected according to contract provisions must be over the realized cost. Contract provisions these are on account of the contractors are set according to their winning bid. Thus, tender preparation phase is actually the first and last position of the contractors where they can freely manage the risk of their future investment. Literature contains numerous researches focusing on analyzing/ managing risks of construction business through several points of views. Analysis/ management requires data/ knowledge. However, neither data nor knowledge except the ones of past experiences is available to bidding for a brand new construction project. Besides, due to distinct risk factors (i.e. political, financial) of different states, risk model ought to be uniquely developed for each state. Previous researches cannot fulfill the risk analysis requirements of bidding for construction contracts of Turkish State, due to their exorbitant complexity and resultant impracticability, and unique conditions of the Turkey. This thesis aims to research a risk analysis technique suitable for conservative construction professionals bidding for Turkish State contracts.