Publication: Türkiye'de ekonomiye güven analizi üzerine bir uygulama
Abstract
Bir ekonomide istikrarı sağlamanın yolu makro ekonomik göstergelerarasındaki dengeyi korumakla mümkün olmaktadır. Göstergeler arasındaki dengelerdeekonomiye olan güveni etkilemektedir. Buradan hareketle bu çalışmada; makroekonomik göstergelerden işsizlik oranı, faiz oranı, dış ticaret açığı, enflasyon oranı vedöviz kuru değişken olarak belirlenip 2007:02-2018:09 döneminde 140 gözlemleEkonomik güven endeksiyle nedensellik ilişkisi araştırılmıştır. Nedensel ilişkisi bulunandeğişkenler ve nedensellik ilişkisi gözetmeden değişkenlerin tamamı ele alınarak 2 taneÇok Kriterli Karar Verme problemi oluşturulmuştur. ÇKKV problemlerinde aylıkveriler yani tarihler alternatif, makro göstergelerde kriter olarak kabul edilip MAUT veSAW yöntemi ile en iyi alternatifler listelenmiştir. Her iki problemin sonuçlarıbirbiriyle ve aynı dönemde ekonomik güven endeksi verileri ile karşılaştırılmıştır.Sonuç olarak; oluşturulan iki problemin sıralamaları arasında tutarlılık olduğu,Ekonomik güven endeksi sıralamasıyla tutarlı olmadığı görülmüştür.
Maintaining stability in an economy is possible by maintaining the balancebetween macroeconomic indicators. The balance between the indicators affects theconfidence in the economy. In this study; Among the macroeconomic indicators,unemployment rate, interest rate, foreign trade deficit, inflation rate and exchange ratewere determined as variables and the relationship between economic confidence indexand causality was investigated with 140 observations between 02/ 2007 and 09/ 2018period. Two Multi Criteria Decision (CMD) making problems were created byconsidering all the variables with causal relationship and regardless of causalityrelationship. Monthly data, ie dates, are considered as criteria in alternative, macroindicators in the MCD problems and the best alternatives are listed with the MAUT andSAW method. The results of both problems were compared with each other and withthe economic confidence index data in the same period. As a result; It is seen that thereis consistency between the rankings of the two problems, and it is not consistent withthe economic confidence index rankings.
Maintaining stability in an economy is possible by maintaining the balancebetween macroeconomic indicators. The balance between the indicators affects theconfidence in the economy. In this study; Among the macroeconomic indicators,unemployment rate, interest rate, foreign trade deficit, inflation rate and exchange ratewere determined as variables and the relationship between economic confidence indexand causality was investigated with 140 observations between 02/ 2007 and 09/ 2018period. Two Multi Criteria Decision (CMD) making problems were created byconsidering all the variables with causal relationship and regardless of causalityrelationship. Monthly data, ie dates, are considered as criteria in alternative, macroindicators in the MCD problems and the best alternatives are listed with the MAUT andSAW method. The results of both problems were compared with each other and withthe economic confidence index data in the same period. As a result; It is seen that thereis consistency between the rankings of the two problems, and it is not consistent withthe economic confidence index rankings.