Publication: Otomatik katılım sistemi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki : bir uygulama
Abstract
Dünya genelinde yaşanan en büyük problemlerin başında uzun yaşam riski gelmektedir. Bu risk bireylerin emekli olduktan sonra, çalışanların üstünde bir yük oluşturmuş ve devletler bu riskten kaçınmak için yeni arayışlar içerisine girmiştir. Bu süreçte özel emeklilik sistemi ortaya çıkmış ve ülkemizde bireysel emeklilik sistemi olarak adlandırılan özel emeklilik sistemi yürürlüğe girmiştir. Bu sisteme katılımı artırmak amacıyla 2017 yılında otomatik katılım sistemi yürürlüğe girmiştir. Otomatik katılım sistemi ile bireyler işe başladıkları andan itibaren sisteme otomatik olarak dahil edilmektedir. Bu uygulama, bireylerin yatırıma yönlendirmesini teşvik ederek, uzun vadede tasarrufların artmasına ve bu doğrultuda ekonomik büyümeye katkı sağlamaktadır. Çalışmada tasarruf miktarını önemli ölçüde etkileyen otomatik katılım sistemi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki incelenmek istenmiştir. 30/ 04/ 2009 ile 30/ 09/ 2024 tarihleri arasında fon büyüklüğü, katkı payı tutarı ve GSYİH değişkenlerinin verileri aylık olarak ele alınmıştır. Çalışmada, Birim Kök Testi, Vektör Otoregresyon (VAR) Modeli, Vector Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM) ve Granger Nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçlara göre 2017 öncesi fon büyüklüğü ile GSYİH arasında nedensellik bulunurken; 2017 öncesi katkı payı tutarı ile GSYİH, 2017 sonrası fon büyüklüğü ile GSYİH, 2017 sonrası katkı payı tutarı ile GSYİH arasında anlamlı bir nedensellik tespit edilememiştir. Bu çalışma, otomatik katılım sistemi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi açıklamayı, sektör yöneticilerine ve akademisyenler için yeni bilgiler sunarak farklı bakış açıları geliştirme potansiyeli taşımaktadır.
One of the biggest problems facing the world today is the risk of longevity. This risk has become a burden on working people after they retire, prompting governments to seek new ways to avoid it. In this process, a private pension system emerged, and in our country, a private pension system known as the individual pension system was put into effect. In order to increase participation in this system, an automatic enrollment system was put into effect in 2017. With the automatic enrollment system, individuals are automatically enrolled in the system from the moment they start working. This application encourages individuals to invest, thereby increasing savings in the long term and contributing to economic growth in this direction. The study aims to examine the relationship between the automatic enrollment system, which significantly affects the amount of savings, and economic growth. Data on fund size, contribution amount, and GDP variables were analyzed monthly between April 30, 2009, and September 30, 2024. The study applied the Unit Root Test, Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger Causality Test. According to the results of the study, causality was found between fund size and GDP before 2017; however, no significant causality was detected between contribution amount and GDP before 2017, fund size and GDP after 2017, or contribution amount and GDP after 2017. This study has the potential to explain the relationship between the automatic enrollment system and economic growth, providing new insights for industry managers and academics and fostering the development of different perspectives.
One of the biggest problems facing the world today is the risk of longevity. This risk has become a burden on working people after they retire, prompting governments to seek new ways to avoid it. In this process, a private pension system emerged, and in our country, a private pension system known as the individual pension system was put into effect. In order to increase participation in this system, an automatic enrollment system was put into effect in 2017. With the automatic enrollment system, individuals are automatically enrolled in the system from the moment they start working. This application encourages individuals to invest, thereby increasing savings in the long term and contributing to economic growth in this direction. The study aims to examine the relationship between the automatic enrollment system, which significantly affects the amount of savings, and economic growth. Data on fund size, contribution amount, and GDP variables were analyzed monthly between April 30, 2009, and September 30, 2024. The study applied the Unit Root Test, Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger Causality Test. According to the results of the study, causality was found between fund size and GDP before 2017; however, no significant causality was detected between contribution amount and GDP before 2017, fund size and GDP after 2017, or contribution amount and GDP after 2017. This study has the potential to explain the relationship between the automatic enrollment system and economic growth, providing new insights for industry managers and academics and fostering the development of different perspectives.