Publication: Enflasyon hedeflemesi yaklaşımı ve Türkiye’de uygulanabilirliği
Abstract
Gerek dünyada gerekse Türkiye'de yaşanan sosyoekonomik gelişmeler istikrarlı bir ekonominin nihai hedefi olarak fiyat istikrarının öne çıktığını göstermektedir. Para politikasının doğru uygulanması ise bu hedefe ulaşmada kritik bir öneme sahiptir. Fiyat istikrarını sağlama çabaları sonucunda, 1990'lı yılların başında devletin, Merkez Bankası'nın, veya her ikisinin beraber hareket etmesi yoluyla para politikasının makul bir dönem için belirlenen sayısal bir enflasyon hedefine dayandırılması ve bunun halka ilan edilmesi şeklinde tanımlanabilen enflasyon hedeflemesi yaklaşımı ön plana çıkmıştır. Şu anda yirmiyi aşkın ülkede uygulanan söz konusu yaklaşımın uygulama sonuçları, yaklaşımın son derece başarılı olduğunu göstermektedir. Türkiye'de de bu yaklaşıma diğer gelişmekte olan ülkeler gibi kademeli geçiş yönünde bir plan yapılmışsa da, ülkede yaşanan siyasi ve ekonomik istikrarsızlıklar stratejiye geçişin ertelenmesine neden olmuştur. Gerekli kurumsal, teknik ve operasyonel koşullar yerine getirildiği takdirde, Türkiye şu anda örtülü şekilde uygulanan enflasyon hedeflemesi yaklaşımına kısa bir süre sonra geçebilecektir.
The socio-economic facts of experience in both Turkey and the globe have indicated that the stabilisation of the prices was the principal target of a stable economy. An accurate application of the monetary policy has a crucial role on the succes of the mentioned targeting. As a result of the efforts on the procuration of the stabilisation of the prices, in the early 1990's, the inflation targetting approach which could be defined as the leaning of monetary policy by the State, the Central Bank or by both of them to a numeral inflation target for a reasonable period of time and the declaration of that to the public opinion, become an important subject. That approach is already in use in more than 20 country and the application results demonstrate that the mentioned approach become highly succesfull. Turkey, such as other countries on the process of development, prepared an economical plan on the gradual application of the mentioned approach; but the economic and political instabilities caused the postponement of the realisation of the approach. In case of the fulfilment of sturctural, technical and operational causes, Turkey will be able to realise the mentioned approach which is currently an implicit approach in use.
The socio-economic facts of experience in both Turkey and the globe have indicated that the stabilisation of the prices was the principal target of a stable economy. An accurate application of the monetary policy has a crucial role on the succes of the mentioned targeting. As a result of the efforts on the procuration of the stabilisation of the prices, in the early 1990's, the inflation targetting approach which could be defined as the leaning of monetary policy by the State, the Central Bank or by both of them to a numeral inflation target for a reasonable period of time and the declaration of that to the public opinion, become an important subject. That approach is already in use in more than 20 country and the application results demonstrate that the mentioned approach become highly succesfull. Turkey, such as other countries on the process of development, prepared an economical plan on the gradual application of the mentioned approach; but the economic and political instabilities caused the postponement of the realisation of the approach. In case of the fulfilment of sturctural, technical and operational causes, Turkey will be able to realise the mentioned approach which is currently an implicit approach in use.