Publication: Merkez bankası para politikası araçlarının kriz ekonomisini açıklamadaki etkinliği : panel veri analizi ile uygulama
Abstract
Bu çalışmanın amacı, merkez bankası para politikası araçlarının kriz ekonomilerini açıklama etkinliğini, uygulanan politikaların büyüme ile olan ilişkisi üzerinden ARDL PMG, DOLS ve EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME TESTİ ile açıklayabilmektir. Pandemi dönemini temsil eden SER02 Kukla değişkeninin bağımsız değişkenler arasına eklendiği çalışma kapsamında; seçilen 5 ülkenin (Brezilya, Güney Afrika, Türkiye, Malezya ve Endonezya) çeyrek frekanslı verileri kullanılarak 2009:Q1 – 2023:Q4 dönemini kapsayan 4 model kurularak ekonometrik analizi yapılmıştır. Çalışmada, Model 1 büyüme üzerindeki bağımsız değişkenlerin etkilerini en iyi açıklayan model; faiz oranı ve zorunlu karşılık oranlarının negatif etkilerinin yanı sıra döviz - efektif işlemleri ve reeskont oranlarının pozitif etkileri bu modelde daha net bir şekilde görülmektedir. Pandemi dönemi (SER02), tüm modellerde büyüme üzerinde negatif bir etkiye sahip olarak kriz döneminin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerini açıkça ortaya koymaktadır.
Banking The aim of this study is to explain the effectiveness of central bank monetary policy instruments in explaining crisis economies by using ARDL PMG, DOLS and COINTEGRATİON TEST. Within the scope of the study, where the SER02 dummy variable representing the pandemic period was added among the independent variables; 4 models covering the period 2009:Q1 - 2023:Q4 were constructed and econometric analysis was performed using quarterly frequency data of 5 selected countries (Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia). In the study, Model 1 is the model that best explains the effects of independent variables on growth. In addition to the negative effects of interest rates and reserve requirement ratios, the positive effects of foreign exchange - effective transactions and rediscount rates are more clearly seen in this model. The pandemic period (SER02) has a negative effect on growth in all models, clearly demonstrating the negative effects of the crisis period on economic growth. Covid Crisis, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, ARDL Analysis, DOLS Analysis.
Banking The aim of this study is to explain the effectiveness of central bank monetary policy instruments in explaining crisis economies by using ARDL PMG, DOLS and COINTEGRATİON TEST. Within the scope of the study, where the SER02 dummy variable representing the pandemic period was added among the independent variables; 4 models covering the period 2009:Q1 - 2023:Q4 were constructed and econometric analysis was performed using quarterly frequency data of 5 selected countries (Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia). In the study, Model 1 is the model that best explains the effects of independent variables on growth. In addition to the negative effects of interest rates and reserve requirement ratios, the positive effects of foreign exchange - effective transactions and rediscount rates are more clearly seen in this model. The pandemic period (SER02) has a negative effect on growth in all models, clearly demonstrating the negative effects of the crisis period on economic growth. Covid Crisis, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, ARDL Analysis, DOLS Analysis.