Publication: Finansal açıklığın para politikasının etkinliği üzerine yansımaları: Türkiye örneği
Abstract
Bu çalışma dört ana bölümden oluşmaktadır. Birinci bölümde ekonomik ve finansal serbestleşmenin teorik boyutu üzerinde durulmuş ve bu konudaki iktisadi ekollerin fikirleri açıklanmıştır. İkinci bölüm, Dünya ve Türkiye’de sermaye hareketlerinin gelişimi üzerine incelemelere ayrılmış ve yıllar içerisinde sermaye hareketlerinin yapısal analizi yapılmıştır. Üçüncü bölümde ise Türkiye’de uygulanan para politikaları 1923’den günümüze amaç-araç-strateji bağlamında ele alınarak incelenmiştir. Son bölümde ise ekonomi politikasının temel ayaklarından bir tanesi olan para politikasının etkinliği ile finansal açıklık arasındaki ilişkiye VAR Analizi uygulanmış ve Türkiye için bir fiyat istikrar mekanizması elde edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar oldukça ilginçtir. Şöyle ki, Enflasyon oranıyla finansal açıklık arasında negatif, kamu kesimi borçlanma gereği ve reel faiz arasında pozitif ilişki bulunmuştur. Ayrıca yapılan nedensellik analizi sonuçlarına göre, reel faiz kendisi üzerinde doğrudan etkili iken finansal açıklık ile kamu kesimi borçlanma gereği dolaylı etkilidir, reel faiz yine finansal açıklık üzerinde doğrudan etkili iken kamu kesimi borçlanma gereği ve enflasyon dolaylı etkili bulunmuştur, Reel faiz kamu kesimi borçlanma gereği üzerinde doğrudan etkili iken enflasyon ve finansal açıklık dolaylı etkili bulunmuştur. Varyans ayrıştırma sonuçlarına göre ise uzun dönemde enflasyonun ve finansal açıklığın belirleyicisi kendisi ve reel faiz iken; reel faizin belirleyicisi kendisi ve enflasyon ve kamu kesimi borçlanma gereğinin ise kendisi ve reel faiz olarak bulunmuştur. Elde edilen Türkiye için fiyat istikrarı mekanizmasına göre reel faiz, enflasyon, finansal açıklık ve kamu kesimi borçlanma gereği reel faizi arttırır ve dolayısıyla finansal açıklık artar, kur mekanizmasıyla enflasyon oranı düşer ve sonuç olarak fiyat istikrarı sağlanır. Yani, finansal açıklık arttıkça fiyat istikrarı sağlanır ve para politikasının etkinliği de artar. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye’de sağlıksız ya da suni bir fiyat istikrarı mekanizmasının var olduğunu düşündürmektedir.
This study is composed of four chapters. In the first chapter, it was emphasized on the theoretical dimension of the economical and financial liberalization and the ideas of the economical schools were explained on this subject. The second chapter is separated for the examinations on the development of the capital movements in Turkey and all over the world and the structural analysis of the capital movement has been performed within the years. In the third chapter, the money policies which were implemented in Turkey were taken up and examined with regard to the purpose-instrument-strategy beginning from the year 1923 to today. In the last chapter, the VAR analysis was applied to the relationship between the effectiveness of the money policy which is one of the essential bases of the economy policy and the financial openness and it was tried to obtain a price – stability mechanism for Turkey. The results obtained are very interesting. Such that, A negative correlation was found between the inflation rate and financial openness and also a positive correlation was found between the requirement of borrowing by public section and the real interest. In addition to this, according to the results of the causality analysis, while the real interest is directly effective on it the financial clarity is indirectly effective because of the borrowing requirement of the public section and while the real interest is directly effective on the financial clarity the borrowing requirement of the public section and the inflation are found indirectly effective. While the real interest is directly effective on the borrowing requirement of the public section, the inflation and the financial openness were found directly effective. According to the variance separation results, while the determinant of the inflation and financial openness is itself and the real interest at the long term; the determinant of the real interest is found itself and that of the inflation and the borrowing requirement of the public section were found as itself and real interest. According to the price stability mechanism obtained for Turkey, the real interest, inflation and financial openness and the borrowing requirement of the public section increase the real interest and consequently the financial clarity increases, the inflation rate decreases with the exchange rate mechanism and as a result the price stability is ensured. That is to say as the financial openness increases the price stability is ensured and the effectiveness of the money policy also increases. These results make us think that there is an unhealthy or artificial price stability mechanism is present in Turkey.
This study is composed of four chapters. In the first chapter, it was emphasized on the theoretical dimension of the economical and financial liberalization and the ideas of the economical schools were explained on this subject. The second chapter is separated for the examinations on the development of the capital movements in Turkey and all over the world and the structural analysis of the capital movement has been performed within the years. In the third chapter, the money policies which were implemented in Turkey were taken up and examined with regard to the purpose-instrument-strategy beginning from the year 1923 to today. In the last chapter, the VAR analysis was applied to the relationship between the effectiveness of the money policy which is one of the essential bases of the economy policy and the financial openness and it was tried to obtain a price – stability mechanism for Turkey. The results obtained are very interesting. Such that, A negative correlation was found between the inflation rate and financial openness and also a positive correlation was found between the requirement of borrowing by public section and the real interest. In addition to this, according to the results of the causality analysis, while the real interest is directly effective on it the financial clarity is indirectly effective because of the borrowing requirement of the public section and while the real interest is directly effective on the financial clarity the borrowing requirement of the public section and the inflation are found indirectly effective. While the real interest is directly effective on the borrowing requirement of the public section, the inflation and the financial openness were found directly effective. According to the variance separation results, while the determinant of the inflation and financial openness is itself and the real interest at the long term; the determinant of the real interest is found itself and that of the inflation and the borrowing requirement of the public section were found as itself and real interest. According to the price stability mechanism obtained for Turkey, the real interest, inflation and financial openness and the borrowing requirement of the public section increase the real interest and consequently the financial clarity increases, the inflation rate decreases with the exchange rate mechanism and as a result the price stability is ensured. That is to say as the financial openness increases the price stability is ensured and the effectiveness of the money policy also increases. These results make us think that there is an unhealthy or artificial price stability mechanism is present in Turkey.