Publication: Tek kuşak tek yol projesinin küresel ekonomi politik etkileri : gravity model yöntemiyle inceleme (2008 - 2018)
Abstract
İpek Yolu, uzun yıllar fikirlerin ve kültürlerin geniş coğrafyalar ölçeğinde ticaret vasıtasıyla aktarımını sağlayan insanlık tarihinin önemli bir değeridir. Küresel düzeyde meydana gelen değişimler İpek Yolu’nun önemini kaybetmesine neden olsa da dünya ticaretindeki avantajlı konumu ve tarihsel referansı sayesinde yeniden canlandırılmasına yönelik girişimler olmuştur. Bu girişimlerin en önemlileri arasında Çin’in 2013 yılında İpek Yolu’nun yeniden canlandırılması için önermiş olduğu Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi yer almaktadır. Bu çalışma, Çin’in geliştirmiş olduğu Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi’ni yine Çin’in sürekli gündeminde tuttuğu kalkınma söylemi ile işbirliğinin sağlanması yönündeki önerisini yapay sinir ağlarını kullanarak gravity model yöntemiyle incelemektedir. Politik ekonomi alanına literatürde yeni kullanılan klasik regresyon analizlerine göre daha açıklayıcı bir şekilde analiz imkanı sunan yapay sinir ağları ile 2013-2018 arasında Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi kapsamında 75 ülkenin milli gelir, ithalat, ihracat, mesafe, sınır komşuluğu, ticaret hacmi ve Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi’nde yer alıp almaması durumuna göre sınıflandırılan veri seti aracılığıyla toplam ticaret hacmine etkisi tahmin edilmiştir. Model sonucuna göre girişim kapsamında yer almanın hedef ülke ticaret hacmine etkisinin %92 oranında olumlu etki yaptığı tespit edilmiştir.
For many years, the Silk Road has ensured the flow of ideas and civilizations across enormous geographies through trade, making it a significant value in humanity's history. Despite the fact that the Silk Road has lost its significance due to global changes, there have been attempts to resurrect it due to its advantageous position in world trade and historical significance. The Belt and Road Initiative, which China announced in 2013 for the rejuvenation of the Silk Road, is one of the most important of these efforts. This study examines the Belt and Road Initiative developed by China, and the proposal for cooperation with the development discourse, which China keeps on its agenda, by using artificial neural networks with the gravity model method. National income, import, export, distance, border neighborhood, trade volume, and Belt and Road Initiative of 75 nations between 2013 and 2018 were analyzed using artificial neural networks, which provide a more descriptive study in the field of political economics than traditional regression. The impact on overall trade volume was calculated using the data set, which is divided into categories based on whether or not it is part of the Initiative. According to the model results, the impact of being included in the initiative on the target country's trade volume is 92 percent positive.
For many years, the Silk Road has ensured the flow of ideas and civilizations across enormous geographies through trade, making it a significant value in humanity's history. Despite the fact that the Silk Road has lost its significance due to global changes, there have been attempts to resurrect it due to its advantageous position in world trade and historical significance. The Belt and Road Initiative, which China announced in 2013 for the rejuvenation of the Silk Road, is one of the most important of these efforts. This study examines the Belt and Road Initiative developed by China, and the proposal for cooperation with the development discourse, which China keeps on its agenda, by using artificial neural networks with the gravity model method. National income, import, export, distance, border neighborhood, trade volume, and Belt and Road Initiative of 75 nations between 2013 and 2018 were analyzed using artificial neural networks, which provide a more descriptive study in the field of political economics than traditional regression. The impact on overall trade volume was calculated using the data set, which is divided into categories based on whether or not it is part of the Initiative. According to the model results, the impact of being included in the initiative on the target country's trade volume is 92 percent positive.