Publication: Establishing energy efficient utilization and cost-effective energy technologies selection strategies for Turkey using markal family of models
Abstract
TÜRKİYE’ DE ENERJİNİN ETKİN KULLANIMI VE MALİYET-ETKİN ENERJİ TEKNOLOJİ SEÇİM STRATEJİLERİNİN MARKAL MODELİ KULLANILARAK OLUŞTURULMASI Sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefi, küresel ve kendine has koşullar altında ekonomi ve çevresel kısıtları hesaba katan ve optimize eden uzun vadeli stratejik planlar ile mümkün olabilir. Bu planlar öncelikle gerçekçi, hâlihazır durumu iyi analiz etmiş ve geleceğe yönelik olası parametreleri de kapsar olması durumunda amacına ulaşabilir. Enerji, ekonomi ve çevresel yönleri ile sistemin optimize edilebilmesi maksadıyla her ülke için böyle bir planlamada kullanılabilecek farklı karar destek temelli yaklaşımlara ihtiyaç vardır. Bu çalışmada esas amaç, ülkemiz için bu maksatla kullanılabilecek bir model ortaya koymaktır. Bugün dünyada 40’ tan fazla ülkede kullanılan MARKAL enerji modeli ülkemiz için 2000 ve 2005 yılları baz alınarak kurulmuştur. İnceleme periyodu 2000-2025 yılları aralığını kapsamaktadır. Model çalışmalarında, enerji taşıyıcıları, enerji teknolojileri ve talepler belirlenmiş, aralarındaki etkileşim ve pozisyonları MARKAL hiyerarşisinde tanımlanarak “Referans Enerji Sistemi” olarak adlandırılan, kaynaktan son kullanıma kadar genel bir enerji ağı 2000 ve 2005 yılı verileri ile kurulmuştur. Temel senaryodan hareketle geleceğe yönelik muhtemel durumların ifade edildiği karbondioksit salım azaltımı, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının kullanımı, güç üretimi ve sanayide talep tarafı yönetimi, kojenerasyonun arttırılması, teknik verimlerin %1, %2 ve %3 oranında arttırılması, doğalgazın yüksek fiyatla kısıtlı ithalatı ve nükleer enerji senaryoları oluşturularak teknik, ekonomik ve çevresel etkileri araştırılmıştır.
ESTABLISHING ENERGY EFFICIENT UTILIZATION AND COST-EFFECTIVE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES SELECTION STRATEGIES FOR TURKEY USING MARKAL FAMILY OF MODELS Achieving the goal of sustainable development may be possible with the long-term strategic plans, which take into account and optimize the global and unique circumstances, economic and environmental constraints. These plans can reach the goal if primarily realistic, has good analysis in the event of current status and includes future potential parameters. Different decision support based approaches are also needed for planning in every country to optimize energy, economy and ecology aspects in the system. The main purpose of this study is to bring up a model for our country that can be used for this purpose. MARKAL energy model, used by more than 40 countries around the world today, is established for our country based on the years 2000 and 2005. Analysis period contains the interval of years 2000-2025. In model studies; energy carriers, energy technologies and demands are determined, their interactions and positions in MARKAL hierarchy is identified and a general network of energy from source to end-use which is named “Reference Energy System” is constructed. Technical, economical and environmental effects were analyzed on the base scenario for the stated future cases by creating specific scenarios as carbon dioxide emission mitigation, utilization of renewable energy resources, demand side management in power generation and industry, increased cogeneration, technical efficiency improvement by the rates 1%, 2% and 3%, limited import of natural gas with higher prices and nuclear energy.
ESTABLISHING ENERGY EFFICIENT UTILIZATION AND COST-EFFECTIVE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES SELECTION STRATEGIES FOR TURKEY USING MARKAL FAMILY OF MODELS Achieving the goal of sustainable development may be possible with the long-term strategic plans, which take into account and optimize the global and unique circumstances, economic and environmental constraints. These plans can reach the goal if primarily realistic, has good analysis in the event of current status and includes future potential parameters. Different decision support based approaches are also needed for planning in every country to optimize energy, economy and ecology aspects in the system. The main purpose of this study is to bring up a model for our country that can be used for this purpose. MARKAL energy model, used by more than 40 countries around the world today, is established for our country based on the years 2000 and 2005. Analysis period contains the interval of years 2000-2025. In model studies; energy carriers, energy technologies and demands are determined, their interactions and positions in MARKAL hierarchy is identified and a general network of energy from source to end-use which is named “Reference Energy System” is constructed. Technical, economical and environmental effects were analyzed on the base scenario for the stated future cases by creating specific scenarios as carbon dioxide emission mitigation, utilization of renewable energy resources, demand side management in power generation and industry, increased cogeneration, technical efficiency improvement by the rates 1%, 2% and 3%, limited import of natural gas with higher prices and nuclear energy.