Publication: Para politikası ve finansal istikrar: Türkiye örneği
Abstract
PARA POLİTİKASI VE FİNANSAL İSTİKRAR: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ Geniş anlamda Finansal istikrar, ödeme sistemi, riski dağıtma, kaynakların etkin dağılımı gibi ekonomik fonksiyonların geçici bir dalgalanma, şok veya yapısal değişim dönemlerinde bile etkin bir şekilde yerine getirilmesi durumudur. Dar anlamda finansal istikrar ise varlık fiyatlarında uzun süreli oynaklıkların yaşanmaması durumudur. Finansal sistem her zaman istikrarsızlık yaratma ve bu istikrarsızlığı yayma eğilimindedir. Bu kapsamda Merkez Bankaları bankaların bankası ve son kredi mercii olarak finansal sistem içinde faaliyet sürdürmek durumundadırlar. Günümüzde artık Merkez Bankalarının ana hedefi fiyat istikrarını sağlamak ikincil amacı ise finansal istikrarın sağlanması ve sürdürülmesidir. Bu süreçte faiz düzleştirme kuralı para politikasının finansal istikrar sağlaması sürecinde köprü görevi görmektedir. Faiz düzleştirme kuralı kısaca, kısa vadeli faiz oranının, finansal stresi ortaya koyan arzulanan faiz oranındaki değişime göre kısmi olarak yavaşça ayarlanması sürecidir. Kuralın diğer yararları yanında faiz düzleştirme kuralı, güven unsurunun sağlanması ve finansal stresin azaltılmasında güçlü bir araçtır. Faiz düzleştirme kuralının istatistiki olarak anlamlı olması para politikasının finansal istikrarı amaçladığına işaret ederken, düzleştirme katsayısının yüksek değer vermesi ise para politikasının finansal istikrarı sağlama ve sürdürme gücünün yüksek olduğunu gösterir. Finansal istikrarın sağlandığı ve sürdürüldüğü sonucuna ulaşmak için ise, finansal istikrara yönelik diğer para politikası uygulamaları, etkin denetim ve gözetim fonksiyonu da göz önünde bulundurulmalıdır. 2001 Güçlü Ekonomiye Geçiş sonrası TCMB’ nin araç ve amaç bağımsızlığının sağlanmasında sonra TCMB’ nin ana amacı fiyat istikrarını sağlamak, ikincil amacı ise finansal istikrarı gözetmektir. Bu sürece etkin denetim ve gözetim faaliyeti sürdüren BDDK da etkin olarak katılmıştır. Faiz düzleştirme kuralı, TCMB’ nin finansal istikrarı sağlama gücünün analizi için 2001 Mayıs sonrası dönem için test edilmiştir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre, TCMB etki tepki fonksiyonu kısa vadeli faizin gerçekteki hareketini yüksek oranda yakalamıştır. Ayrıca faiz düzleştirme katsayısı da yüksek bir değer vermiştir. Bu sonuca göre 2001 sonrası dönemde TCMB faiz düzleştirme kuralını uygulamakta ve kısa vadeli faizleri yüksek oranda düzleştirmektedir. Faiz düzleştirme kuralının geçerli olması, TCMB’ nin 2001 sonrası dönemde finansal istikrarı amaçladığını, finansal istikrarı sağlama ve sürdürme gücünün de yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuç, 2001 sonrası yürütülen para politikası, BDDK’ nin etkin denetim ve gözetime yönelik uygulamaları ve finansal sağlamlık endeksi ile birlikte değerlendirildiğinde, 2001 sonrası dönemde finansal istikrarın sağlandığı ve sürdürüldüğü görülmektedir. Genelleştirilmiş Moment Yöntemi, Para Politikası, Faiz Düzleştirme Kuralı, Finansal İstikrar, Finansal İstikrarsızlık, Finansal Varlık Fiyatı, Taylor Kuralı, Türkiye Ekonomisi.
MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY: THE TURKISH CASE In broad sense financial stability is the situation of effective fulfilling of economic functions, such as payment system, hedging, and efficient allocation of resources in the period of short term volatility, shock or structural changes. In the narrow sense financial stability is not having long term volatilities in the asset prices. Financial system always has a tendency in accordance with in stability bias. In this respect Central Banks have to operate in financial system as The Bank of Banks and the Final Credit Authority. Nowadays, while the primary aim of Central Banks is to maintain price stability, their secondary aim is to maintain and sustain financial stability. Interest rate smoothing is serving as a bridge in the process of monetary policy to maintain financial stability. Shortly, The Interest Rate Smoothing Rule is a gradually partial adjustment process of the short term interest rate due to the change in the desired interest rate which shows financial stress. In addition to the other benefits, The Interest Rate Smoothing Rule is a powerful tool for maintaining confidence and reducing financial stress. While a statistically significant interest rate smoothing rule indicates monetary policy aims financial stability, a high smoothing coefficient points out that monetary policy has the power of maintaining and sustaining financial stability. In order to reach the conclusion that financial stability is maintained and sustained, the other monetary policy applications aiming financial stability, supervision and regulation function should be taken into consideration. After Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey’s independence of purpose and instrument was maintained in the post-2001 The Program for Transition to a Strong Economy period, the primary aim of The Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey is to maintain price stability while secondary aim is to consider the financial stability. Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency which is operating effective supervision and regulation actions also have contributed to this process efficiently. Interest rate smoothing was estimated for analyzing The Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey’s capability to maintain financial stability for a period after May 2001. According to result of estimation Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey’s reaction function is captured the movement of short term interest rate in a high range. Furthermore interest rate smoothing coefficient also featured a high value. According to this result in the post 2001 period Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey has used interest rate smoothing and smoothened the short term interest rate in a high range. Validity of interest rate smoothing demonstrated at in the post 2001 period financial stability had been aimed and the capability to maintain and sustain financial stability was high. When this conclusion is evaluated together with the conducted monetary policy, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency’s effective supervision and regulation applications and financial strength index in the post 2001 period, it is seen that financial stability has been maintained and sustained in the period mentioned. Key Words: GMM, Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Smoothing Rule, Financial Stability, Financial Instability, Asset Price, Taylor’s Rule, Turkish Economy.
MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY: THE TURKISH CASE In broad sense financial stability is the situation of effective fulfilling of economic functions, such as payment system, hedging, and efficient allocation of resources in the period of short term volatility, shock or structural changes. In the narrow sense financial stability is not having long term volatilities in the asset prices. Financial system always has a tendency in accordance with in stability bias. In this respect Central Banks have to operate in financial system as The Bank of Banks and the Final Credit Authority. Nowadays, while the primary aim of Central Banks is to maintain price stability, their secondary aim is to maintain and sustain financial stability. Interest rate smoothing is serving as a bridge in the process of monetary policy to maintain financial stability. Shortly, The Interest Rate Smoothing Rule is a gradually partial adjustment process of the short term interest rate due to the change in the desired interest rate which shows financial stress. In addition to the other benefits, The Interest Rate Smoothing Rule is a powerful tool for maintaining confidence and reducing financial stress. While a statistically significant interest rate smoothing rule indicates monetary policy aims financial stability, a high smoothing coefficient points out that monetary policy has the power of maintaining and sustaining financial stability. In order to reach the conclusion that financial stability is maintained and sustained, the other monetary policy applications aiming financial stability, supervision and regulation function should be taken into consideration. After Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey’s independence of purpose and instrument was maintained in the post-2001 The Program for Transition to a Strong Economy period, the primary aim of The Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey is to maintain price stability while secondary aim is to consider the financial stability. Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency which is operating effective supervision and regulation actions also have contributed to this process efficiently. Interest rate smoothing was estimated for analyzing The Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey’s capability to maintain financial stability for a period after May 2001. According to result of estimation Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey’s reaction function is captured the movement of short term interest rate in a high range. Furthermore interest rate smoothing coefficient also featured a high value. According to this result in the post 2001 period Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey has used interest rate smoothing and smoothened the short term interest rate in a high range. Validity of interest rate smoothing demonstrated at in the post 2001 period financial stability had been aimed and the capability to maintain and sustain financial stability was high. When this conclusion is evaluated together with the conducted monetary policy, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency’s effective supervision and regulation applications and financial strength index in the post 2001 period, it is seen that financial stability has been maintained and sustained in the period mentioned. Key Words: GMM, Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Smoothing Rule, Financial Stability, Financial Instability, Asset Price, Taylor’s Rule, Turkish Economy.