Publication: İktisat politikası açısından 5 Nisan 1994 istikrar tedbirlerinin değerlendirilmesi
Abstract
İstikrar programları , ekonomik kriz yaşayan ülkelerde krizin atlatılması ve ekonominin yeniden dengeye getirilmesi sürecinde uygulanan bir dizi önlemler paketidir. Bu programlar ekonomik dengeyi kurmada faydalanılan araçlar değildirler ve literatürde kabul gören sıkı mali ve para politikası temeline dayanmaktadır. Bununla birlikte programlar içerdikleri politikaların özelliklerine göre farklılaşmaktadırlar. Örneğin, Ortodoks programlar sıkı mali ve sıkı para politikalarından, Heterodoks programlarda fiyat ve ücret kontrollerinden oluşmaktadır. Bu politikalara ek olarak ekonomik dengesizliğin giderilmesi sürecinde enflasyonist beklentileri kırmak için temel parametrelerden yani nominal çıpalardan yararlanılmaktadır. Kronik enflasyon ülkelerinde döviz kuru ve enflasyon arasındaki güçlü ilişki nedeniyle, kurun nominal çıpa olarak kullanılması yaygındır. İstikrar programları içsel veya dışsal faktörlerin neden olduğu bir kriz sonrasında, kısa dönemde ekonomide yaşanan dar boğazı gidermek için uygulanan programlardır. Yüksek enflasyon dönemlerinde istikrar programları uygulayan ülkelerin ekonomik, politik ve kültürel karakteristikleri farklı olduğundan programların sonuçlarıda ülkelere göre değişmektedir. Birçok Latin Amerika ülkesi bu tür programları 1970 yılından beri uygulamıştır. Bu ülkelerin bir kısmı uyguladıkları istikrar programlarında başarılı olmuş ve düşük enflasyon hedefini tutturmuşlardır. Meksika ve İsrail 1980'li yıllarda yüksek kronik enflasyon yaşayan ülkelerdi. Şu anda bu ülkeler düşük enflasyona sahiptirler. Diğer yandan Arjantin 1990'lı yılların başında hiper enflasyon yaşamıştır. 1991 yılındaki sıkı bir stabilizasyon sonrasında enflasyonu çok düşük seviyelere indirmiştir. Bu nedenle bu ülkelerin istikrar deneyimleri Türkiye için faydalı olabilir. 1994 yılında Türkiye ekonomisi ciddi bir finansal kriz yaşamıştır. Krizin başlama nedenini kontrol altına alınamayan mali açıklar oluşturmuştur. Liranın hızlı bir şekilde değeri düşürülmüş ve enflasyon oranı üç haneli rakamlara yükselmiştir. Bunu takiben, Türk hükümeti 5 Nisan 1994'de bir istikrar uygulamaya koymuştur. Programın ilk hedefi yabancı döviz piyasasında dengeyi sağlamak, enflasyonu düşürmek ve dış dengeyi geliştirmek olmuştur. 5 Nisan istikrar kararlarında kur temel çıpa olarak seçilmiş, kur artışının enflasyon artışı altında kalacak şekilde kontrol edilmesiyle, programın uygulanmasını takip eden aylarda döviz piyasaları istikrara kavuşmuştur. 5 Nisan kararları, 1994 yılında yaşanan krizin aşılmasında kısmen etkili olmuştur. Finans piyasalarında yaşanan kriz, hükümetin iç borç faiz oranlarını yeniden yükseltmesi, mevduata devlet güvencesi verilmesi ve döviz piyasalarına müdahalesi ile aşılmıştır. Kısacası, 5 Nisan istikrar kısa dönemde içine düşülen finansal kriz aşılmış fakat istikrar sürecinin gerekleri yerine getirilmediği için düşük enflasyon ve sürdürülebilir büyüme anlamındaki kalıcı başarıya ulaşılamamıştır.
Stabilization programs are packages of measures that are taken to overcome crisis in countries face with financial crisis and are implemented during the process of re-balancing economy. These programs are not the tools used for balancing economy and are based on tight finance and money policies in literature. However, these programs vary due to characteristics of the policies that they include. For example, orthodox programs consist of tight fiscal and money policies whereas heterodox programs consist of price and wage controls. In addition to these policies, nominal anchors, which are fundamental parameters, are also used to prevent inflationist expectations during the correction process of financial unbalance. In the countries having chronic inflation, there is a strong relation between exchange rate and inflation. Thus, in such countries it is common to use exchange rate as nominal anchor. Stabilization programs are implemented after a crisis caused by internal and external factors to overcome financial straits in a short period. Since the economic, political and cultural characteristics of countries that implement stabilization programs during high inflation periods are different, the results of programs vary among countries. Many of the Latin American countries have been being implemented these programs since 1970. Some of these countries became successful in the programs that they implemented and they achieved the low inflation target. Mexico and Israel are countries which had high chronic inflation in 1980s. Now, these countries have low inflation. On the other hand, Argentina had hyper-inflation at the beginning of 1990s. After the implementation of an ambitious stabilization program in 1991, its inflation reduced to very low levels. Thus, stabilization programs experiences of these countries may be useful for Turkey. In 1994, Turkish economy found itself in a very severe financial crisis. The reason of beginning of crisis was the uncontrollable fiscal deficits. The lira was rapidly depreciated and inflation rate increased up to three digit levels. Then, Turkish government announced a stabilization program on 5th April, 1994. The first targets of the program were providing balance in exchange market, decreasing inflation and improving external balance. In 5th April Stabilization Program, exchange rate was chosen as main anchor and exchange rate increase was controlled as it would be lower than inflation increase. As a result, stabilization in exchange market was achieved in the following months of April. 5th April Stabilization Program became partially successful to overcome crisis in 1994. Crisis in financial market was overcome by increasing internal interest rate again, providing guarantee of government for deposits and by intervention of government to exchange markets. As a conclusion, 5th April Stabilization Program provided to overcome financial crisis in a short time but since the conditions of stabilization process were not implemented, permanent success by means of low inflation and sustainable development could not be achieved.
Stabilization programs are packages of measures that are taken to overcome crisis in countries face with financial crisis and are implemented during the process of re-balancing economy. These programs are not the tools used for balancing economy and are based on tight finance and money policies in literature. However, these programs vary due to characteristics of the policies that they include. For example, orthodox programs consist of tight fiscal and money policies whereas heterodox programs consist of price and wage controls. In addition to these policies, nominal anchors, which are fundamental parameters, are also used to prevent inflationist expectations during the correction process of financial unbalance. In the countries having chronic inflation, there is a strong relation between exchange rate and inflation. Thus, in such countries it is common to use exchange rate as nominal anchor. Stabilization programs are implemented after a crisis caused by internal and external factors to overcome financial straits in a short period. Since the economic, political and cultural characteristics of countries that implement stabilization programs during high inflation periods are different, the results of programs vary among countries. Many of the Latin American countries have been being implemented these programs since 1970. Some of these countries became successful in the programs that they implemented and they achieved the low inflation target. Mexico and Israel are countries which had high chronic inflation in 1980s. Now, these countries have low inflation. On the other hand, Argentina had hyper-inflation at the beginning of 1990s. After the implementation of an ambitious stabilization program in 1991, its inflation reduced to very low levels. Thus, stabilization programs experiences of these countries may be useful for Turkey. In 1994, Turkish economy found itself in a very severe financial crisis. The reason of beginning of crisis was the uncontrollable fiscal deficits. The lira was rapidly depreciated and inflation rate increased up to three digit levels. Then, Turkish government announced a stabilization program on 5th April, 1994. The first targets of the program were providing balance in exchange market, decreasing inflation and improving external balance. In 5th April Stabilization Program, exchange rate was chosen as main anchor and exchange rate increase was controlled as it would be lower than inflation increase. As a result, stabilization in exchange market was achieved in the following months of April. 5th April Stabilization Program became partially successful to overcome crisis in 1994. Crisis in financial market was overcome by increasing internal interest rate again, providing guarantee of government for deposits and by intervention of government to exchange markets. As a conclusion, 5th April Stabilization Program provided to overcome financial crisis in a short time but since the conditions of stabilization process were not implemented, permanent success by means of low inflation and sustainable development could not be achieved.