Publication: Global krizin Türk beyaz eşya sektörü üzerine etkileri
Abstract
GLOBAL KRİZİN TÜRK BEYAZ EŞYA SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİ ÖZET Dünyada yıllar boyunca pek çok ekonomik kriz yaşanmıştır. Bu krizler Bankacılık ve döviz boyutlarından oluşmaktadır. Bunlara ikizler denmekte ve bu iki boyut bir araya gelip sorunlar yaratınca, ekonomiler önemli maliyetlerle karşı karşıya kalmaktadırlar. 1975-1997 yılları arasında, yaşanan 299 ekonomik krizin 213'ü, para piyasaları ve dövizle ilgili, 54'ü bankacılık sektöründen kaynaklanan, 32'si, de hem döviz hem de bankacılık sektörü kökenli krizlerdir. 1997 yılında başlayan 300. kriz bütün dünyayı etkisi altına almış ve Global Kriz adı ile anılmıştır. Temmuz 1997'de Tayland'da patlak veren kriz, kısa sürede Güney Kore, Endonezya ve Malezya'yı etkisi altına almıştır. Hong Kong, Singapur ,Tayvan , Çin ve Japonya gibi diğer Asya ülkerini de etkilemiştir. Bu kriz Güney Doğu Asya Krizinin diğer dünya ülkelerine ( Rusya, İngiltere, Latin Amerika, Kanada, ...) yayılması sonucunda global bir nitelik kazanmıştır. Kriz niteliği itibariyle ilgili ülkelerde para ve döviz piyasalarından ortaya çıkan büyük ölçekli bir dengesizliktir. Bu dengesizliğin temelinde ilgili ülke ekonomilerindeki çözülemeyen yapısal ekonomik sorunlar yatmaktadır. Tüm dünyayı etkileyen Global Kriz'den Türkiye ekonomisi de nasibini almıştır.Rusya ve Güney Amerika ülkelerine değin yayılan Global Krizden ülkemiz, başlangıçta çeşitlendirilmiş ihracat yapısı nedeniyle yoğun olarak etkilenmemiş, ancak dışa dönük büyüme modelinin benimsenmiş olması nedeniyle mali piyasalarda yaşanan kriz reel ekonomide kendini iç ve dış talep daralması ile göstermiştir. Türkiye Kriz'den rekabet ve büyüme olmak üzere iki açıdan etkilenmiştir. Doğu Asya Ülkeleri ile hemen hemen aynı malları üreten Türkiye, bu ülkelerin mallarının dünya piyasasında değerinden ucuza satılmasından dolayı haksız rekabet ile karşı karşıya kalmış bunun sonucunda piyasada dengesizlikler oluşmuştur. Tüm bu koşullar altında üretim, iç ve dış satış azalışları, işçi çıkarmaları ve yatırımlardaki duraklamalar Türkiye ekonomisine damgasını vurmuştur. Bunun yanısıra kriz ve durgunluk ortamında demir-çelik, tekstil ve hazır giyim, kimya, metal eşya, makina ve elektrik, inşaat, otomotiv ve beyaz eşya sektörleri de olumsuz etkilenmiştir. Sunulan çalışmada ekonomide önemli bir yeri olan Beyaz Eşya sektörünün Global Kriz'den etkilendiği hipotezi savunulmaktadır. Kullanım süresi bir yıldan uzun, dayanıklı tüketim mallarının alt sektörleri içinde yer alan Beyaz eşya sektörü çok sayıda ve çeşitli mal grubunu içermektedir. Bu ürünlerin başlıcaları; buzdolabı, çamaşır ve bulaşık makinaları, fırın, ocak gibi ürünlerdir. Global krizin Türk Beyaz Eşya Sektörüne etkisini incelediğimizde, TL'nin değer kazanması, ihracatımızı pahalılaştırmasının yanısıra ithalatımızı ucuzlatmıştır. Sonuç olarak Doğu Asya ülkelerine karşı rekabet avantajını kaybeden ihracatçılarımız pazar paylarını kaybetme noktasına gelmişlerdir. Bu sonuçlar Beyaz Eşya sektöründe durgunluğa neden olmuştur. Üretim ve iç satışlardaki artış oranı 1998'den sonra azalan bir trend izlemiştir.1999 yılında da Tüketiciler ihtiyaçlarını erteleme eğilimine girmeleriyle birlikte pazarda büyük oranda daralma gözlenmiştir. 2000 yılına girdiğimizde Beyaz Eşya'da kriz öncesi üretim seviyesine ulaşılmış ve ihracat oranları artmaktadır. Tezin birinci bölümünde, Global krize genel bakış, krizin doğuşu, nedenleri , ve sonuçları açıklanmıştır. İkinci bölümde ise Krizin Dünya ve Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine etkileri reel ve para piyasaları açılarından incelenmiştir. Üçüncü bölümde de Türk Beyaz Eşya sektörüne etkisi, kriz öncesi ve kriz sonrası istatistiki veriler kullanılarak ve sektördeki firma yöneticileriyle görüşmeler yapılarak değerlendirilmiştir. GLOBAL CRISIS AND THE IMPACT OF TURKISH INDUSTRY OF HOME APPLIANCES
Thought the years there have been many economical crises around the world. These crises occur due to banking and foreign exchange dimensions. These are called the twins; and when these two dimensions come together and create problems, economies have to face major costs. Out of the 299 economical crises which took place between 1975 and 1977, 213 crises were based on money markets and currency exchange, 54 were based on banking, and 32 crises were based on both exchange and banking. The 300th crisis, which started in 1997, has effected the whole world and has been called The Global Crisis. The crisis, which came up in June 1997 in Thailand, effected South Korea, Indonesia and Malaise in a short time. It has also effected other Asian countries such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, China and Japan. This crisis took on a global characteristic as the South East Asian crisis spread out to the other countries (Russia, England, Latin America, Canada…). According to its characteristics, crisis is an imbalance on a wide scale, occurring from money markets and exchange markets. At the bottom of this imbalance lies the structural economical problems that are not solved in the concerned country. Turkey has had its share from the Global Crisis, which has effected the whole world. At the beginning, our country was not very much effected from the Global Crisis, which spread upto Russia and South America, because of its structure of export as an increased variety. However, because foreign trade development was adopted, the crisis in stock exchange has appeared in real economy as a decrease in foreign and home trade. Turkey was effected by the crisis in two ways; competition and growth. Although Turkey produces nearly the same products as the East Asian countries, Turkey had to face unfair competition because the products of those countries were sold to cheaper prices than they were worth in the world market; and as a result of this there were imbalances in the market. Under these circumstances, decrease in foreign and home sales, unemployed workers and pauses in investments marked the Turkish economy. Apart from this, in this state of crisis and stagnation industries of iron and steel, textile and clothes, chemicals, metal, mechanics and electrical, construction, automotive and home appliances have been badly effected. In the work that is presented, the hypothesis put forward is that the industry of Home Appliances, which holds an important place in the economy, has been effected form the Global Crisis. The industry of Home Appliances, which is a subordinate industry of long lasting consumer products valid for more than a year, includes many and various product groups. The main products are refrigerators, washing machines, dish washers, ovens and cookers. When we examine the effects of the Global Crisis on the Turkish Industry of Home Appliances, we see that the revaluation of Turkish Lira has reduced the prices in import while increasing the prices in export. As a result, our exporters who have lost their advantage of competition against the East Asian countries have come to the point of losing their share in the market. These results have caused stagnation in the industry of home appliances. The increase rates in manufacturing and home sales have decreased after 1998. As the consumers tended to postpone their needs in 1999, there has been a great amount of reduction in the market. As we come to the year 2000, the manufacturing of home appliances is the same amount as it was before the crisis and the amount of export is increasing. In the first part of the thesis a general view on the Global Crisis, the start of the crisis, its causes and its results have been explained. In the second part, the effects of the crisis in the World economy and Turkish economy have been examined from the point of view of real market and money market. In the third part, the effects of the crisis on the Turkish home appliances industry have been evaluated according to the statistics before and after the crisis and by interviewing managers from companies in the industry.
Thought the years there have been many economical crises around the world. These crises occur due to banking and foreign exchange dimensions. These are called the twins; and when these two dimensions come together and create problems, economies have to face major costs. Out of the 299 economical crises which took place between 1975 and 1977, 213 crises were based on money markets and currency exchange, 54 were based on banking, and 32 crises were based on both exchange and banking. The 300th crisis, which started in 1997, has effected the whole world and has been called The Global Crisis. The crisis, which came up in June 1997 in Thailand, effected South Korea, Indonesia and Malaise in a short time. It has also effected other Asian countries such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, China and Japan. This crisis took on a global characteristic as the South East Asian crisis spread out to the other countries (Russia, England, Latin America, Canada…). According to its characteristics, crisis is an imbalance on a wide scale, occurring from money markets and exchange markets. At the bottom of this imbalance lies the structural economical problems that are not solved in the concerned country. Turkey has had its share from the Global Crisis, which has effected the whole world. At the beginning, our country was not very much effected from the Global Crisis, which spread upto Russia and South America, because of its structure of export as an increased variety. However, because foreign trade development was adopted, the crisis in stock exchange has appeared in real economy as a decrease in foreign and home trade. Turkey was effected by the crisis in two ways; competition and growth. Although Turkey produces nearly the same products as the East Asian countries, Turkey had to face unfair competition because the products of those countries were sold to cheaper prices than they were worth in the world market; and as a result of this there were imbalances in the market. Under these circumstances, decrease in foreign and home sales, unemployed workers and pauses in investments marked the Turkish economy. Apart from this, in this state of crisis and stagnation industries of iron and steel, textile and clothes, chemicals, metal, mechanics and electrical, construction, automotive and home appliances have been badly effected. In the work that is presented, the hypothesis put forward is that the industry of Home Appliances, which holds an important place in the economy, has been effected form the Global Crisis. The industry of Home Appliances, which is a subordinate industry of long lasting consumer products valid for more than a year, includes many and various product groups. The main products are refrigerators, washing machines, dish washers, ovens and cookers. When we examine the effects of the Global Crisis on the Turkish Industry of Home Appliances, we see that the revaluation of Turkish Lira has reduced the prices in import while increasing the prices in export. As a result, our exporters who have lost their advantage of competition against the East Asian countries have come to the point of losing their share in the market. These results have caused stagnation in the industry of home appliances. The increase rates in manufacturing and home sales have decreased after 1998. As the consumers tended to postpone their needs in 1999, there has been a great amount of reduction in the market. As we come to the year 2000, the manufacturing of home appliances is the same amount as it was before the crisis and the amount of export is increasing. In the first part of the thesis a general view on the Global Crisis, the start of the crisis, its causes and its results have been explained. In the second part, the effects of the crisis in the World economy and Turkish economy have been examined from the point of view of real market and money market. In the third part, the effects of the crisis on the Turkish home appliances industry have been evaluated according to the statistics before and after the crisis and by interviewing managers from companies in the industry.