Publication: İhracat Kredi Sigortalarının İhracata Etkisi Üzerine Bir Araştırma
Abstract
Dünyada ve ülkemizde ihracatı teşvik etmek amacıyla ihracat kredi sigortası yapılmaktadır. İhracat kredisigortası, ihracat yapan firmaların alacaklarını, alıcı firmanın ödeyememesi durumunda zararın sigortatarafından tazmin edilmesine dayanmaktadır. Ülkemizde 2000’li yıllardan itibaren yaygınlaşmaya başlayanihracat kredi sigortası sistemi ile alıcı firmanın ödeyememe riski ortadan kaldırılarak ihracatın geliştirilmesiamaçlanmaktadır. Bu sigorta türü, tüm dünyada devlet desteği ile uygulanabildiği gibi az sayıda özel sektörtarafından da uygulamaları görülmektedir. Dünyada yapılan çalışmalar ihracat kredi sigortasının ihracataolumlu etkisini ortaya çıkarsa da ülkemizde bu alanda yapılan çalışmalar sınırlı kalmıştır. Bu çalışmada ülkemizde ihracatı teşvik amacıyla uygulanan ihracat kredi sigortasının ihracata etkisi, yıllık verilerkullanılarak korelasyon, regresyon analizi ve Granger nedensellik testi ile incelenmiştir. Bunun için TürkEximbank’ın 2003 yılları ile 2018 yılları arasındaki ihracatta sigortalanan sevkiyat değerleri, TÜİK’ten alınanTürkiye’nin toplam dış ticaret hacmi, ihracat değerleri, sigortasız sevkiyat değerleri, ihracat kredi değerleri,tüketici güven indeksi değerleri kullanılmıştır. Araştırma sonuçları değerlendirildiğinde ülkemizde ihracatta,sigortalı sevkiyatın yıllar içerisinde artış gösterdiğini, fakat görülen artışın sigortasız sevkiyattaki artışa göredaha sınırlı olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca korelasyon analizi sonucuna göre ihracat kredi sigortasında,sigortalanan sevkiyat değeriyle sigortasız sevkiyat, ihracat hacmi, eximbank kredileri ve dış ticaret hacmiarasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif yönde ilişki belirlenmiştir. Sigortalı sevkiyat değeri ile tüketicigüven indeksi arasında ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif ilişki bulunmuştur. Tüketici güvenindekiartışla birlikte ihracatta sigortalı sevkiyat azalmaktadır.
Export credit insurance is provided in order to promote export in the world and in our country._x000D_ Export credit insurance is based on the compensation of the loss by the insurance company in case the exporting_x000D_ company fails to take its receivables. With the export credit insurance system, which has become widespread_x000D_ since the 2000s, it is aim to improve the export by eliminating the risk of non-payment of the buyer. This type_x000D_ of insurance can be implemented with government support all over the world and it is implemented by a few_x000D_ private sector. Although the studies carried out in the world reveal the positive effect of export credit insurance_x000D_ on exports, the studies conducted in export credit insurance in our country have been limited. In this study, the_x000D_ effect of export credit insurance, which is applied to increase the exports in Turkey is analyzed by correlation,_x000D_ regression analysis and Granger causality test, using annual data. For this purpose, the Turkish Eximbank’s_x000D_ shipment value of insured exports data between 2003 and 2018, and Turkey's total foreign trade volume, export_x000D_ value, uninsured shipment value, export credit value, consumer confidence index values from Turkish_x000D_ Statistical Institute are used. According to the results of the research, it has been determined that the export of_x000D_ insured shipments has increased over the years in Turkey but the increase is more limited than the increase in_x000D_ uninsured shipments. In addition, a statistically significant and positive relationship has been determined_x000D_ between the insured shipment value in export credit insurance and uninsured shipment, export volume,_x000D_ eximbank loans and foreign trade volume. A statistically significant and negative correlation has been found_x000D_ between insured shipment value and consumer confidence index. Insured shipments in exports decrease with_x000D_ the increase in consumer confidence.
Export credit insurance is provided in order to promote export in the world and in our country._x000D_ Export credit insurance is based on the compensation of the loss by the insurance company in case the exporting_x000D_ company fails to take its receivables. With the export credit insurance system, which has become widespread_x000D_ since the 2000s, it is aim to improve the export by eliminating the risk of non-payment of the buyer. This type_x000D_ of insurance can be implemented with government support all over the world and it is implemented by a few_x000D_ private sector. Although the studies carried out in the world reveal the positive effect of export credit insurance_x000D_ on exports, the studies conducted in export credit insurance in our country have been limited. In this study, the_x000D_ effect of export credit insurance, which is applied to increase the exports in Turkey is analyzed by correlation,_x000D_ regression analysis and Granger causality test, using annual data. For this purpose, the Turkish Eximbank’s_x000D_ shipment value of insured exports data between 2003 and 2018, and Turkey's total foreign trade volume, export_x000D_ value, uninsured shipment value, export credit value, consumer confidence index values from Turkish_x000D_ Statistical Institute are used. According to the results of the research, it has been determined that the export of_x000D_ insured shipments has increased over the years in Turkey but the increase is more limited than the increase in_x000D_ uninsured shipments. In addition, a statistically significant and positive relationship has been determined_x000D_ between the insured shipment value in export credit insurance and uninsured shipment, export volume,_x000D_ eximbank loans and foreign trade volume. A statistically significant and negative correlation has been found_x000D_ between insured shipment value and consumer confidence index. Insured shipments in exports decrease with_x000D_ the increase in consumer confidence.