The predictive research of the Coronavirus Disease-2019 outbreak in Turkey

Abstract

© 2022,Journal of International Dental and Medical Research. All Rights Reserved.Aim to evaluate the relationship between the number of newly confirmed Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and public concern in Turkey via Google TrendsTM. The data on relative search volumes for 5 keywords related to coronavirus and prevention from the disease (COVID-19, coronavirus, face mask, hand washing, disinfectant) were obtained between March 10, 2020, and June 16, 2020. The daily numbers of newly confirmed cases were obtained from the Ministry of Health\"s COVID-19 information platform. Time-lag correlations for the time lag between - 17 and + 17 days were used to assess whether search queries on Google predicted new COVID-19 cases. The relative search volumes for COVID-19 and coronavirus increased 2-3 weeks before cases, with the highest correlations between searches and cases observed - 9 and - 17 days early, respectively. Although relative search volumes for the terms of handwashing and disinfectant increased 13-14 days earlier, interest in face masks increased 4 days earlier. Public searches about disease prevention have negative correlations with the worldwide case/death rates in the first wave. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases was predicted by examining the search behavior of the public using Google TrendsTM.