Publication: An analysis of energy structure of Turkey
Abstract
Büyümeyi öncüleyen politikaların doğal kaynaklar, ekolojik denge ve iklim üzerindeki zararlı etkilerine yönelik çalışmaların yanı sıra bu etkileri ortadan kaldırmaya politika önerileri hem iktisat literatüründe hem de ulusal ve uluslararası politika metinlerinde artık önemli bir yer bulmaktadır. Üretim ve tüketim faaliyetlerinde gezegenin biyofiziksel sınırlarının gözetilmesini savunan görüşlerden biri olan küçülme yaklaşımında ise ekonomik büyüme ile çevresel etkileri ve kaynak tüketimi arasında mutlak ve sürekli bir ayrışmanın olmadığından yola çıkılarak planlı ve gönüllü küçülme politikalarının kaçınılmaz olduğu savunulmaktadır. Bu bağlamda bu çalışmada da ekonomik faaliyetlerinde büyük ölçüde fosil yakıtlara bağımlı olan Türkiye’nin hem enerji tüketimi ile üretim artışı arasındaki ayrışma performansı, hem de enerji tüketiminin belirleyici unsurları, tüm üretim faaliyetleri ve imalat sanayi özelinde, iki ayrı aşamada ve WIOD veri seti üzerinden incelenmiştir. Ayrıca ekonomide orta vadede önemli yapısal değişikliklere yol açabilecek karbon emisyonlarının azaltılması politikalarının enerji tüketimini nasıl etkileyebileceği hem bu konuda yapılmış senaryo analizleri hem de enerji yoğunluğuna ilişkin oluşturulan varsayımlar baz alınarak yine indeks ayrıştırma yöntemi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmada katma değer artışı ile ölçülen üretim artışının enerji tüketiminin temel belirleyicilerinden olduğu, buna karşın enerji yoğun sektörlerin sektörel paylarındaki ve enerji yoğunluğu değişikliklerinin enerji tüketimi üzerinde önemli etkiler doğurduğu görülmüştür. Bu bağlamda Türkiye’nin üretim ve tüketim aktivitelerini gönüllü ve planlı bir şekilde küçülterek enerji talebini aşağı çekeceği bir senaryonun yakın gelecekte olası görünmediği dikkate alındığında; enerji yoğunluğu azaltım hedeflerinin yukarılara çekilerek sıkı bir şekilde uygulanması ve enerji yoğun sektörlerin üretim içindeki paylarını küçültülmesi enerji talebini kontrol altına alması için elzem görünmektedir.
Studies on the harmful effects of growth-promoting policies on natural resources, ecological balance, and climate, as well as policy suggestions to eliminate these effects, are becoming increasingly common in economic literature as well as texts addressing national and international policy issues. In the degrowth approach, one of the discourses advocating the consideration of the biophysical limits of the planet in production and consumption activities, it is argued that economic downsizing is inevitable because economic growth is not absolutely and permanently decoupled from its environmental impact and natural resource use. In this context, in this study, both the decoupling performance between energy consumption and production increase in Turkey, which is mainly dependent on fossil fuels, as well as the driving forces of energy consumption for both all production and manufacturing activities, are examined in two separate stages, based on WIOD data. In addition, how policies to reduce carbon emissions, which may lead to significant structural changes in the economy in the medium term, can affect energy consumption are examined by using the index decomposition method, based on scenario analyses regarding the impacts of carbon mitigation policies and assumptions made about energy intensity. It is seen that the increase in production, measured by value-added in this study, is one of the main drivers of the increase in energy consumption. However, it is also found that changes in sectoral shares and energy intensities of energy-intensive sectors influence energy consumption significantly. In this context, because a scenario in which Turkey will reduce its energy demand by downsizing its production and consumption activities in a voluntary and planned manner is unlikely in the near future; if energy demand needs to be controlled, it seems essential to meet higher levels of energy intensity reduction targets and reduce the share of energy-intensive sectors in production.
Studies on the harmful effects of growth-promoting policies on natural resources, ecological balance, and climate, as well as policy suggestions to eliminate these effects, are becoming increasingly common in economic literature as well as texts addressing national and international policy issues. In the degrowth approach, one of the discourses advocating the consideration of the biophysical limits of the planet in production and consumption activities, it is argued that economic downsizing is inevitable because economic growth is not absolutely and permanently decoupled from its environmental impact and natural resource use. In this context, in this study, both the decoupling performance between energy consumption and production increase in Turkey, which is mainly dependent on fossil fuels, as well as the driving forces of energy consumption for both all production and manufacturing activities, are examined in two separate stages, based on WIOD data. In addition, how policies to reduce carbon emissions, which may lead to significant structural changes in the economy in the medium term, can affect energy consumption are examined by using the index decomposition method, based on scenario analyses regarding the impacts of carbon mitigation policies and assumptions made about energy intensity. It is seen that the increase in production, measured by value-added in this study, is one of the main drivers of the increase in energy consumption. However, it is also found that changes in sectoral shares and energy intensities of energy-intensive sectors influence energy consumption significantly. In this context, because a scenario in which Turkey will reduce its energy demand by downsizing its production and consumption activities in a voluntary and planned manner is unlikely in the near future; if energy demand needs to be controlled, it seems essential to meet higher levels of energy intensity reduction targets and reduce the share of energy-intensive sectors in production.