Publication: Türkiye'de kadın cinayetlerinin illere göre sezgisel bulanık doğrusal regresyon analizi ile tahmini
Abstract
Kadına şiddet ve kadın cinayetleri, Türkiye’de önemli bir toplumsal sorun haline gelmiştir. Şiddet gören kadınların büyük çoğunluğu, aile, yakın çevre, iş çevresi gibi yakinen tanıdığı kişiler tarafından şiddete maruz kalmaktadır. Şiddetin derecesinin artması cinayetle sonuçlanmaktadır. İşlenen bu cinayetlerin büyük bir kısmı, namus, kıskançlık gibi bahanelerle meşrulaştırılmaya çalışılmaktadır. Türkiye ve dünyada kadın cinayetlerinin gerçek boyutu tam olarak bilinmemekte, bunun nedeni ise; bazı ülkelerde kadın cinayetleri meşru sayıldığı için kayda alınmamakta, bazı ülkelerde ise; kasten birini öldürmeye girmekte (kadın, erkek ayrımı yapılmadan), bazı ülkelerde de ölüm hastanede gerçekleştiğinde o anki ölüm nedenine göre rapor hazırlanmış olmasıdır. Yukarıda da belirtildiği net rakamların ilgili makamlarca açıklanmaması nedeniyle medyaya yansıtılan verileri toplayarak veri tabanı oluşturan sosyal sivil kuruluşlar bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada seçilmiş olan illerdeki 2010 ile 2020 yılları arasında işlenmiş kadın cinayetleri ele alınmıştır. Araştırmada son 5 yıl verilerinin olmamasının nedeni ise; Türkiye’yi etkileyen pandemi döneminin yaşanmış olması. Pandemi döneminde ailelerin eve kapanması, sosyal ve ekonomik yapısının başta olmak üzere birçok ailevi yapı ve alışkanlıkların bozulması nedeniyle şiddettin artmasına neden olmuştur. Araştırmada seçilmiş illerin çoğunda kadın cinayet rakamlarının arttığı gözlenmiş ve ileriye dönük tahmini sezgisel doğrusal bulanık regresyon yöntemi kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Klasik regresyon yerine sezgisel doğrusal regresyonun kullanılma nedeni; ulaşabildiğimiz verilerin net ve kesin olmaması, verilerin doğrusal ve net bir ilişki içinde olmaması nedeniyle bu yaklaşım tercih edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda elde edilen tahminler ile 2020-2024 yılları arasında gerçekleşen kadın cinayetleri verileri ile karşılaştırması yapılmıştır. Karşılaştırma sonrasında da kadın cinayetlerinin artışlarının azaltılması ya da bu artışın hızını düşürerek azalan eğri göstermesini sağlamak amacıyla görüş ve önerilerde bulunulunmuştur
Violence against women and femicide have become a significant social problem in Turkey. The vast majority of women who are subjected to violence are subjected to violence by people they know closely, such as their family, close circle, and work circle. The increase in the level of violence results in murder. A large portion of these murders are attempted to be legitimized with excuses such as honor and jealousy. The true extent of femicides in Turkey and the world is not fully known, the reason for this is that in some countries femicides are considered legitimate and are not recorded, while in some countries they deliberately attempt to kill someone (without distinguishing between men and women), and in some countries, when death occurs in a hospital, a report is prepared according to the cause of death at that moment. Since the clear figures mentioned above are not announced by the relevant authorities, there are social and civil organizations that collect data reflected in the media and create a database. This study examines femicides committed in selected provinces between 2010 and 2020. The reason for the absence of data from the last 5 years in the study is that Turkey experienced a pandemic period. During the pandemic, families being confined to their homes has caused violence to increase due to the disruption of many family structures and habits, especially the social and economic structure. In the study, it was observed that the number of femicides increased in most of the selected provinces and the forward-looking estimate was made using the intuitive linear fuzzy regression method. The reason for using intuitive linear regression instead of classical regression was that the data we could access was not clear and precise, and the data did not have a linear and clear relationship. The estimates obtained as a result of the analysis were compared with the data on femicides that occurred between 2020-2024. After the comparison, opinions and suggestions were made in order to reduce the increase in femicides or to reduce the speed of this increase and ensure that it shows a decreasing curve.
Violence against women and femicide have become a significant social problem in Turkey. The vast majority of women who are subjected to violence are subjected to violence by people they know closely, such as their family, close circle, and work circle. The increase in the level of violence results in murder. A large portion of these murders are attempted to be legitimized with excuses such as honor and jealousy. The true extent of femicides in Turkey and the world is not fully known, the reason for this is that in some countries femicides are considered legitimate and are not recorded, while in some countries they deliberately attempt to kill someone (without distinguishing between men and women), and in some countries, when death occurs in a hospital, a report is prepared according to the cause of death at that moment. Since the clear figures mentioned above are not announced by the relevant authorities, there are social and civil organizations that collect data reflected in the media and create a database. This study examines femicides committed in selected provinces between 2010 and 2020. The reason for the absence of data from the last 5 years in the study is that Turkey experienced a pandemic period. During the pandemic, families being confined to their homes has caused violence to increase due to the disruption of many family structures and habits, especially the social and economic structure. In the study, it was observed that the number of femicides increased in most of the selected provinces and the forward-looking estimate was made using the intuitive linear fuzzy regression method. The reason for using intuitive linear regression instead of classical regression was that the data we could access was not clear and precise, and the data did not have a linear and clear relationship. The estimates obtained as a result of the analysis were compared with the data on femicides that occurred between 2020-2024. After the comparison, opinions and suggestions were made in order to reduce the increase in femicides or to reduce the speed of this increase and ensure that it shows a decreasing curve.