Publication: 2001-2021 Yılları arasında Afgan-Amerikan ilişkilerinin neo-klasik realizm perspekifinden analizi : stratejik ittifaktan güvenilmez ortaklığa
Abstract
2001-2021 dönemi, Afganistan ile Amerika Birleşik Devletleri arasındaki ilişkilerde önemli bir yer tutmakta olup, ikili bağların kritik bir safhasını temsil etmektedir. Bu dönemde, Afgan-Amerikan ilişkileri ortak stratejik hedefler, karşılıklı güven ve ortak çıkarlar temeli üzerine bina edilmiştir. Bu ilişki, askeri, ekonomik, siyasi, yönetişim, sosyal, kültürel, altyapısal ve kurumsal alanlarda kapsamlı işbirliğini içeren stratejik bir ortaklık seviyesine yükseltilmiştir. Bu ortaklığın kapsamı ve niteliği, 2005, 2012, 2015 ve 2020 yıllarında imzalanan anlaşmalarla tanımlanmış ve belirlenmiştir. Bu çalışma, Afgan-Amerikan stratejik ortaklığının hem oluşumuna hem de nihai olarak dağılmasına birçok dış ve iç faktörün katkıda bulunduğunu savunmaktadır. Çalışma, Afgan devletinin güvenlik sorunları, ekonomik zorluklar, altyapı ve sosyal kalkınma gereksinimleri, kurumsal kapasitenin artırılması, demokratik kurumların güçlendirilmesi ve küresel toplumla bütünleşmeye duyulan ciddi ihtiyaç nedeniyle ABD ile stratejik ortaklık kurmaya itildiğini ileri sürmektedir. Öte yandan, ABD'yi Afganistan ile kalıcı bir stratejik ortaklık kurmaya iten temel nedenler güvenlik sorunlarını ortadan kaldırmak, devlet dışı silahlı gruplardan kaynaklanan olası tehditleri önlemek ve Afganistan'da demokratik normların ve değerlerin teşvik edilmesini ve kurumsallaşmasını savunmaktı. Yine bu çalışmaya göre, ABD’nin Afgan devletiyle “terörle mücadele” misyonunun temel ilkeleri ve Taliban’la barış süreci politikası konularında derin anlaşmazlıklar yaşaması, Afgan devletin kamu kurumlarındaki yaygın yolsuzluklar, Taliban’a karşı devam eden savaşın askeri çıkmaza girmesi, stratejik ortaklığın sürdürülebilirliğini baltalayan başlıca iç faktörler olmuştur. Ayrıca, küresel güç dengesindeki değişimler, özellikle Çin ve Rusya’nın bölgesel ve küresel aktörler olarak yükselmesi, ABD’yi Afganistan ile olan angajmanının kapsamını ve niteliğini yeniden değerlendirmeye itmiştir. Bu çalışma, bir devletin tercihleri, davranışları ve dış politikasının şekillenmesinde içsel ve uluslararası faktörlerin önemini vurgulayan Neoklasik Realizm'in analitik çerçevesini benimseyerek, Afgan-Amerikan stratejik ortaklığının nasıl kurulduğunu ve neden sürdürülemez hale geldiğini kapsamlı bir şekilde incelemektedir. Dolaysıyla bu çalışma, Afgan-ABD stratejik ortaklığının şekillenmesinde ve çöküşünde hem içsel hem de dışsal faktörlerin önemini vurgulamaktadır.
The 2001-2021 era holds a significant place in the relationship of Afghanistan and the United States of America, representing a critical phase in their bilateral ties. During this period, Afghan-American relations were built on the foundation of shared strategic goals, mutual trust, and common interests. This relationship was elevated to the level of a strategic partnership, encompassing comprehensive cooperation in military, economic, political, governance, social, cultural, infrastructural, and institutional domains. The scope and nature of this strategic partnership were defined and outlined through agreements signed in 2005, 2012, 2015, and 2020. This study argues that both internal and external factors contributed to the formation and dissolution of the Afghan-American strategic partnership. It asserts that Afghanistan was driven to establish a strategic partnership with the U.S. due to pressing needs such as addressing security challenges, overcoming economic difficulties, fulfilling infrastructure and social development requirements, enhancing institutional capacity, strengthening democratic institutions, and integrating into the global community. On the other hand, the U.S. was motivated to establish a strategic partnership with Afghanistan primarily to address security challenges, prevent potential threats from non-state armed groups, and promote and institutionalize democratic norms and values in Afghanistan. According to this study, major internal factors that undermined the sustainability of the strategic partnership included the deep disagreements between the U.S. and the Afghan government over the core principles of the “counterterrorism” mission and the peace process with the Taliban, widespread corruption within Afghan public institutions, and the military stalemate in the ongoing war against the Taliban. Additionally, shifts in the global balance of power, particularly the rise of China and Russia as regional and global actors, compelled the U.S. to reevaluate the scope and nature of its engagement with Afghanistan. This study adopts the analytical framework of Neoclassical Realism, which emphasizes the significance of domestic and international factors in shaping a state's preferences, behaviors, and foreign policy, to comprehensively examine how the Afghan-American strategic partnership was established and why it became unsustainable. Accordingly, it highlights the important role of both internal and external factors in shaping and ultimately leading to the collapse of the Afghan-American strategic partnership.
The 2001-2021 era holds a significant place in the relationship of Afghanistan and the United States of America, representing a critical phase in their bilateral ties. During this period, Afghan-American relations were built on the foundation of shared strategic goals, mutual trust, and common interests. This relationship was elevated to the level of a strategic partnership, encompassing comprehensive cooperation in military, economic, political, governance, social, cultural, infrastructural, and institutional domains. The scope and nature of this strategic partnership were defined and outlined through agreements signed in 2005, 2012, 2015, and 2020. This study argues that both internal and external factors contributed to the formation and dissolution of the Afghan-American strategic partnership. It asserts that Afghanistan was driven to establish a strategic partnership with the U.S. due to pressing needs such as addressing security challenges, overcoming economic difficulties, fulfilling infrastructure and social development requirements, enhancing institutional capacity, strengthening democratic institutions, and integrating into the global community. On the other hand, the U.S. was motivated to establish a strategic partnership with Afghanistan primarily to address security challenges, prevent potential threats from non-state armed groups, and promote and institutionalize democratic norms and values in Afghanistan. According to this study, major internal factors that undermined the sustainability of the strategic partnership included the deep disagreements between the U.S. and the Afghan government over the core principles of the “counterterrorism” mission and the peace process with the Taliban, widespread corruption within Afghan public institutions, and the military stalemate in the ongoing war against the Taliban. Additionally, shifts in the global balance of power, particularly the rise of China and Russia as regional and global actors, compelled the U.S. to reevaluate the scope and nature of its engagement with Afghanistan. This study adopts the analytical framework of Neoclassical Realism, which emphasizes the significance of domestic and international factors in shaping a state's preferences, behaviors, and foreign policy, to comprehensively examine how the Afghan-American strategic partnership was established and why it became unsustainable. Accordingly, it highlights the important role of both internal and external factors in shaping and ultimately leading to the collapse of the Afghan-American strategic partnership.