Publication: 2000’li yıllarda ABD’nin İran’a yönelik politikasının İran-Türkiye ilişkilerine etkisi : neoklasik realist bir analiz
Abstract
İslam Devrimi’nden sonra İran ve ABD ilişkileri, devrimin beşinci on yılında Donald Trump yönetiminin iktidara gelmesiyle yoğunlaşan, hatta zaman zaman çatışma noktasına gelen birçok iniş ve çıkışa sahiptir. Bu inişli ve çıkışlı ilişkiler, İran’ın komşularıyla olan ilişkilerini de etkilemiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı 2000’li yıllarda ABD Başkanları olan George W. Bush, Barak Obama ve Donald Trump döneminde ABD’nin İran’a karşı uyguladığı nükleer yaptırımların, İran-Türkiye ilişkilerini nasıl etkilediğini analiz etmektir. Neoklasik realizm teorisi, ABD’nin liderler düzeyinde İran’a yönelik dış politikasındaki değişimlerin İran-Türkiye ilişkilerine etkisini açıklamak için kullanılmıştır. Bu amaçla 2000’li yıllarda ABD liderlerinin İran’ın nükleer politikalarına yönelik tehdit algısı ve tehditleri bertaraf etmede kullandıkları araçların değişiminin (Obama’nın Ekonomik Baskı Politikası ve Trump’ın Maksimum Baskı Politikası) İran-Türkiye ilişkilerine etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Bu tezin, neoklasik realizm teorisi çerçevesinde ana sorusu; 2000’li yıllarda uluslararası sistemik değişimin etkisi altında ABD Başkanlarının İran’ın nükleer programına yönelik dış politikasındaki değişimler İran-Türkiye ilişkilerini nasıl etkilemiştir? Bir diğer deyişle, ABD’nin liderler düzeyinde İran’a yönelik tehdit algısı ve tehditleri ortadan kaldırmada kullandıklar araçlardaki değişim, İran-Türkiye ilişkilerini ne şekilde etkilemektedir? Çalışma kapsamında nükleer yaptırımlar vakası süreç analizi yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Araştırmanın bulguları, İran-Türkiye arasındaki ilişkilerin ABD Başkanı Barak Obama döneminde gerçekleşen İran Nükleer Anlaşması (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action-JCPOA) sonrası özellikle ekonomik işbirliği yönünde geliştiğini ortaya koymaktadır Ancak Donold Trump’ın bu anlaşmadan çekilmesinden sonra İran ile Türkiye arasındaki ilişkilerin de büyük ölçüde olumsuz yönde etkilendiği görülmektedir. Bu araştırmada yukarıdaki sorulardan yola çıkarak ABD’nin peş peşe gelen liderler düzeyinde değişen tehdit algısı ve seçilen dış politika araçlarının İran-Türkiye ilişkilerine de etkilediği tespit edilmiştir.
After the Islamic Revolution, the relations between Iran and the USA have had many ups and downs that intensified and even came to the point of conflict from time to time with the coming to power of the Donald Trump administration in the fifth decade of the revolution. These ups and downs have also affected Iran's relations with its neighbors. The aim of this study was to the presidents of the USA, George W. Bush, Barak Obama, and Donald Trump, of the US's nuclear sanctions against Iran affect how Iran-Turkey relations. The neoclassical theory of realism has been used to explain the effects of the changes in the foreign policy of the USA towards Iran at the level of the leaders on the Iran-Turkey relations. For this purpose, the effect of the US leaders' perception of the threat to Iran's nuclear policies in the 2000s and the changes in the tools they used to eliminate threats (Obama's Economic Pressure Policy and Trump's Maximum Pressure Policy) on Iran-Turkey relations were analyzed. The main question of this thesis, within the framework of neoclassical realism theory; In the 2000s, under the influence of international systemic change, how did the changes in the foreign policy of the US Presidents towards Iran's nuclear program affect Iran-Turkey relations? In other words, how does the US's perception of the threat to Iran at the leaders' level and the change in the tools they use to eliminate the threats affect Iran-Turkey relations? Within the scope of the study, the nuclear sanctions case was analyzed by the process analysis method. The findings of the research reveal that the relations between Iran-Turkey have developed especially in the direction of economic cooperation after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that took place during the US President Barak Obama period. It is seen that the relations between Iran and Turkey have been affected negatively to a great extent. In this study, based on the above questions, it has been determined that the changing threat perception of the USA at the level of successive leaders and the chosen foreign policy tools also affect Iran-Turkey relations.
After the Islamic Revolution, the relations between Iran and the USA have had many ups and downs that intensified and even came to the point of conflict from time to time with the coming to power of the Donald Trump administration in the fifth decade of the revolution. These ups and downs have also affected Iran's relations with its neighbors. The aim of this study was to the presidents of the USA, George W. Bush, Barak Obama, and Donald Trump, of the US's nuclear sanctions against Iran affect how Iran-Turkey relations. The neoclassical theory of realism has been used to explain the effects of the changes in the foreign policy of the USA towards Iran at the level of the leaders on the Iran-Turkey relations. For this purpose, the effect of the US leaders' perception of the threat to Iran's nuclear policies in the 2000s and the changes in the tools they used to eliminate threats (Obama's Economic Pressure Policy and Trump's Maximum Pressure Policy) on Iran-Turkey relations were analyzed. The main question of this thesis, within the framework of neoclassical realism theory; In the 2000s, under the influence of international systemic change, how did the changes in the foreign policy of the US Presidents towards Iran's nuclear program affect Iran-Turkey relations? In other words, how does the US's perception of the threat to Iran at the leaders' level and the change in the tools they use to eliminate the threats affect Iran-Turkey relations? Within the scope of the study, the nuclear sanctions case was analyzed by the process analysis method. The findings of the research reveal that the relations between Iran-Turkey have developed especially in the direction of economic cooperation after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that took place during the US President Barak Obama period. It is seen that the relations between Iran and Turkey have been affected negatively to a great extent. In this study, based on the above questions, it has been determined that the changing threat perception of the USA at the level of successive leaders and the chosen foreign policy tools also affect Iran-Turkey relations.